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Russia's offensive could threaten Ukrainian Armed Forces as they lack aid from US

Russia's offensive could threaten Ukrainian Armed Forces as they lack aid from US The success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield will depend on the resumption of aid from the US (photo: Getty Images)

Russia is preparing for a major offensive in early summer. If US military aid is not unlocked by then, the enemy's counteroffensive will pose a serious problem for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

It is noted that US security assistance is crucial for the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to defend themselves against current and future Russian offensives, which are expected to begin in late spring and summer of this year.

The report reminded of a statement by the Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, Major General, Kyrylo Budanov, that Ukrainian forces are preparing to repel a future major Russian offensive, expected at the end of May or early June. It also reminded me that, according to him, this offensive would be catastrophically difficult without Western military assistance.

ISW also reminded of a statement by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov that the current situation in eastern Ukraine is tense and that Russian forces are concentrating their efforts west of Bakhmut towards Chasiv Yar. According to him, Ukrainian forces are successfully using modern equipment against the overwhelming number of Russian personnel.

Additionally, the Institute cited a statement by the spokesperson of the Ukrainian group Khortytsia Nazar Voloshin, who stated that Ukrainian forces in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions can use only from one to five artillery shells for every 10 artillery shells fired by Russian forces. At the same time, he clarified, that Ukrainian artillery is more accurate than Russian artillery.

The report notes that the Ukrainian Defense Forces' ability to repel the recent intensification of Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine has been hampered by a lack of materiel and is likely to deteriorate shortly if there is a delay in US military aid.

"Russian forces are currently capitalizing on Ukrainian materiel shortages resulting from the lack of US security assistance to make marginal tactical advances but that future Russian assaults may be able to achieve more significant and threatening gains, particularly west of Bakhmut, should the US continue to withhold assistance to Ukraine," the ISW report said.

Financial aid from the US for Ukraine's defense needs

The US has practically not been providing military assistance to Ukraine for several months. The reason for this is the blocking by Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson of a $60 billion defense funding package for Ukraine.

Johnson hinted that the House is ready to unblock assistance to Ukraine, but it will not be provided by the US for free, but rather under a loan or credit program.

After a massive attack by Iran on Israeli territory on April 14, Joe Biden asked the leadership of Congress to quickly approve a bill on defense assistance to Ukraine and Israel.

On the evening of April 15, Johnson introduced four separate bills regarding US assistance funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, as well as other national security priorities.

The White House has expressed opposition to approving a defense funding package solely for Israel without aid to Ukraine and Taiwan.