Russia's capture of Vuhledar signals further advances in Donetsk - ISW

Analysts noted that in early September, Russian forces intensified their offensive operations in western Donetsk region and are currently attempting to encircle Kurakhove from the north and south, as well as to straighten the frontline between Sontsivka (to the northwest of Kurakhove) and Shakhtarsk (to the northwest of Vuhledar).

As of October 1, Russian forces had captured Vuhledar and advanced north and northwest of the settlement in a series of successful mechanized and infantry attacks over the past month. The enemy also made slight progress northeast of Vuhledar in the areas of Antonivka and Katerynivka. Still, the ISW has yet to confirm Russian offensives on Yelyzavetivka and further west along the C051104 highway.

Currently, Russian forces are positioned several kilometers south of the Romanivka-Uspenivka-Sukhyi Yar line. This line runs to settlements north of Vuhledar, which could present a significant problem for Russian forces if the Ukrainian Armed Forces can establish defenses in these areas.

However, Russian forces seem to be attempting to bypass this line, as indicated by geolocated footage from November 10. The footage suggests that Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Dalne (south of Kurakhove and northwest of Yelyzavetivka) and are likely occupying positions in the fields to the east and southeast of Dalne.

Russian military bloggers claim that Russian forces have advanced directly into the settlement of Dalne, but the ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these reports.

Analysts state that further Russian advances in Dalne and west of Dalne could force Ukrainian troops to retreat from their positions in the pocket north and northeast of Vuhledar, thus allowing Russian forces to move along the C051104 highway relatively unimpeded. Such movement would enable Russian forces to apply further pressure on Ukrainian positions in Kurakhove from the south.

The ISW has revised its previous assessment, which suggested that Russian forces would unlikely be able to leverage the capture of Vuhledar for further offensive operations in western Donetsk. Analysts now conclude that this assessment was incorrect.

They also added that all of the aforementioned Russian actions are part of ongoing offensive operations aimed at straightening the frontline and eliminating the Ukrainian salient once again in the western Donetsk region.

As of the evening of November 11, 185 combat engagements were reported in the frontline since the beginning of the day. Almost half of the fighting occurred in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions.