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Russia prepares for offensive, requiring complex defensive decisions by Ukrainian Armed Forces

Russia prepares for offensive, requiring complex defensive decisions by Ukrainian Armed Forces Due to the delay in US aid, Ukraine will find it difficult to resist Russia's offensive (photo: Getty Images)

Russian forces have intensified their offensive operations along the entire front line in Ukraine. Due to delays in providing military assistance from the US, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to accumulate resources and make difficult decisions regarding defence priorities, according to the report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The report states that Russian forces have accelerated their offensive operations across the entire theatre of operations. Specifically, on April 4, the Russian army conducted a platoon-level mechanized attack towards the town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region. The results indicate that the aggressor's military successfully compensates for potential increases in casualties and equipment losses.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and senior Ukrainian military officials recently warned that delays in providing military assistance from Western countries have forced Ukraine to cede the initiative on the battlefield to Russia. According to them, Ukrainian forces cannot plan a successful counteroffensive or defence without knowing when and what aid the country will receive.

According to ISW estimates, delays in providing Western military assistance force Ukrainian forces to accumulate material resources.

"ISW continues to assess that delays in Western military assistance have forced the Ukrainian military to husband materiel and that Ukrainian forces likely must make difficult decisions prioritizing certain aspects of its defense at the expense of contesting the initiative to constrain Russian military capabilities or plan for future counteroffensive operations as prolonged US debates about military aid continue," the ISW report said.

Frontline situation

Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, Major General, Kyrylo Budanov has stated that Ukraine expects an intensification of Russian offensive operations in Donbas at the end of spring or the beginning of summer. According to him, the Russians are likely to try to advance towards the city of Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut, and towards Pokrovsk.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that the main Russian offensive efforts could begin at the end of May or in June.

The President's Office believes that Ukraine is approaching a critical moment and expects the US Congress to decide on funding aid to Ukraine in April.