Russia plays victorious 'meat assaults' to pressure negotiations - ISW
Russian command ignores losses for the sake of victories on the frontline (Photo: Getty Images)
Despite colossal losses and a slowdown in the pace of advance, Russia continues to increase the number of its troops for political gain, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The report states that Russian forces are preparing a sufficient number of personnel to compensate for losses while simultaneously increasing the size of their grouping in Ukraine, despite the fact that the number of casualties per square kilometer has risen.
Analysts suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to accept significant losses in exchange for minimal tactical gains in order to create the impression of the Russian army's strength and to pressure Ukraine during negotiations.
On May 13, Putin claimed that between 50,000 and 60,000 people are voluntarily joining the Russian army each month. Experts do not rule out that he may be exaggerating these figures to project the image of a powerful military force amid negotiations with Ukraine and Western countries.
At the same time, analysts point out that Putin did not specify when exactly this monthly recruitment level of 50,000–60,000 was reached. Previously, both Ukrainian and Russian officials noted that Russia planned to reach such a recruitment level in 2025.
In January, the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, reported that around 450,000 individuals had signed contracts to serve in the Russian army in 2024, and an additional 40,000 had joined volunteer formations. Medvedev stated that Russia’s military leadership intends to maintain this growth.
Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Vadym Skibitskyi, stated in early March that Russia’s plans for 2025 would mostly allow it to compensate for combat losses, provided the current pace of offensive operations is maintained.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, noted that the number of Russian troops increased from approximately 603,000 on January 1, 2025, to 623,000 in just over three months.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that the comparison of statements by Putin and Syrskyi indicates that Russia may not only be able to offset its losses but also gradually increase the overall number of its forces in Ukraine.
Losses for the sake of concessions
According to experts, Russia continues to tolerate personnel losses comparable to the levels seen during the intensification of offensive operations in the fall of 2024, despite the slowdown in progress during the first four months of 2025.
As noted by ISW, the Russian command can form a sufficient number of personnel to maintain the pace of replacing losses and increasing the size of its forces in Ukraine by quickly deploying insufficiently trained soldiers to the front lines.
Analysts pointed out that Russian recruits undergo only a month of training before being sent to Ukraine. Such limited training likely reduces their combat effectiveness and the overall capabilities of the Russian army for conducting complex combat operations.
"The Russian military is currently prioritizing sending poorly-trained recruits into highly-attritional infantry assaults to make grinding advances — despite enduring a higher casualty rate per square kilometer gained — in an effort to pressure Ukraine and the West into acquiescing to Russian demands amid ongoing negotiations. Russia is also attempting to prolong negotiations to extract additional concessions from the United States and while making additional battlefield advances," the ISW analysts concluded.
Negotiations on ending the war
The US and the member countries of the Coalition of the Willing issued an ultimatum to the Kremlin - to completely cease fire from May 12 for 30 days. In case of refusal, Russia will face new harsh sanctions.
However, Putin stated that he does not accept the language of ultimatums and suggested resuming negotiations in Istanbul on May 15, which were disrupted in the spring of 2022. Turkey agreed to act as a mediator.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to visit Istanbul in order not to offend US President Donald Trump.
Putin has not yet responded to whether he is willing to personally travel to Istanbul or whether Russian delegates will lead the negotiations.
The Financial Times suggests that the negotiations are a delay tactic for Russia to prepare for a new large-scale offensive.
