Russia plans to increase its military presence on NATO's eastern flank - ISW
Russian and Belarusian troops during joint exercises (Illustrative photo: Getty Images)
Russia is likely to place its military bases on the territory of the Republic of Belarus. This would allow the Russian army to strengthen its military presence on NATO's eastern flank and accelerate the de facto annexation of Belarus, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The report notes that on March 13, Presidents of Russia Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met in Moscow and ratified a bilateral security guarantees agreement between the two states. The document allows Russia to establish military bases and infrastructure on the territory of the Republic of Belarus.
Following the meeting, Putin stated that the security guarantees agreement defines mutual allied obligations between Russia and Belarus regarding defense and security, using all available arsenal of forces and means.
Putin also noted that Russia has deployed a joint regional military group, modern Russian defense systems, and tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. According to him, all of this reliably covers the western borders of Belarus and Russia.
"ISW forecasted in 2021 that Russia may deploy a permanent Russian force presence in Belarus in order to increase Russia's capacity to threaten NATO's eastern flank and continues to assess that the Kremlin is using the Union State framework to advance its strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus," the report states.
Risk of a large-scale war in Europe
In 2024, several military intelligence agencies from European countries reported that Russia was preparing for a large-scale invasion of NATO countries.
According to Danish intelligence, a major war against NATO could begin within the next few years. To this end, the Kremlin is reorganizing the Russian Armed Forces to be able to fight the Alliance on equal terms.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius did not rule out that Russia could attack NATO countries in 2029-2030.
On March 13, Donald Trump stated that the US would do everything to prevent Russia from attacking its NATO allies.
