Russia may launch new offensive in August or September
Russia may launch new offensive in August or September (Getty Images)
Given the pace of forming new units and troop deployment, the Russian Federation may organize a new offensive operation in August or September, says the military and political analyst of the Information Resistance Group Oleksandr Kovalenko, according to RBC-Ukraine article "Kremlin accumulates forces: Russia's potential offensive and amount of missiles it has."
As Kovalenko explained, for Russia to organize a new offensive, it needs to compensate for the losses it suffered during the past year, and since the beginning of this year during the Avdiivka offensive campaign.
Currently, the enemy is not advancing as intensively along the front line as before, but they still try to do so. During the summer, they will form new units, complete those that are not yet formed, and around the second half of this year, they may indeed begin offensive operations
Objectives during the new offensive
Russia's objectives on the front remain the same – complete capture of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The next priority, in case of advancement in Donbas, is the expansion of the occupation to Zaporizhzhia region, located on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
According to the first scenario, Russia's new operations could unfold towards the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. For this purpose, the enemy needs to intensify its actions in Lyman, Siversk, and Bakhmut directions.
Another variant of their actions involves another attempt to capture Kurakhove and Vuhledar.
According to Kovalenko, the terrorists need to control the 0532 Road, which is a logistical artery from Maryinka to Vuhledar.
"The enemy is currently trying to create conditions for cutting this logistical artery in the Novomykhailivka area. They are also pushing towards Pobeda and Vodiane from Solodke. In fact, they are creating conditions to push towards Vuhledar not only from the south but also from the north," says Kovalenko.
He also believes that the enemy may try to re-intensify offensive actions in the Kupiansk area in the second half of the year.
Is an offensive on Kyiv possible?
A new offensive on Kyiv, which some Western media predict, currently seems highly unlikely. For Moscow to organize such an operation, they would need to accumulate no less than 100,000 troops alongside the Kyiv region, particularly from the North, on the territory of Belarus.
To deploy such a force, conduct its deployment, combat coordination, and so forth, it would take at least 3-4 months, and this cannot go unnoticed by Ukraine's special services. Currently, according to RBC-Ukraine, no such activity is observed in the North.
Russian offensive
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports Russia may start a large-scale offensive in the Donetsk direction at the end of spring or the beginning of summer. At the same time, it says that the enemy will probably be able to start a coordinated large-scale offensive operation only in one operational direction due to the limitation of their human resources and planning.
Meanwhile, Colonel Janno Märk, deputy chief of staff of the Estonian division for operational work, says it is currently difficult to assess whether Russia will be able to advance in Ukraine this spring.
