Russia loses up to 500,000 troops yet captures just 0.4% of Ukraine in 2025 - The Economist
Illustrative photo: Russian losses have risen 60%, while gains remain lower than before (Getty Images)
The spring 2025 offensive in Ukraine, launched by Russian leader Vladimir Putin, inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces. Ukrainian troops eliminated at least 100,000 Russian soldiers, while Moscow managed to seize only 0.4% of Ukraine's territory, The Economist reports.
The publication analyzed data from more than 200 sources, including government estimates and independent non-governmental studies. From the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 until January 2025, Russia is estimated to have lost 640,000–877,000 personnel, including 137,000–228,000 killed.
From January 1 to October 13, 2025, Russian losses have risen by nearly 60%. They now total at least 984,000–1.438 million personnel, including 190,000–480,000 killed.
Tiny gains at a huge cost
The sharp increase in Russian losses has not sped up the capture of Ukrainian territory. Since the front line stabilized after October 2022, it has remained largely unchanged.
The Economist estimates that, if Russia continues at the current pace of "success," it will not fully occupy Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions before June 2030. Full occupation of Ukraine would take 103 years.
Since May, Russian forces have captured just 0.4% of Ukrainian territory. Key cities in Donetsk, such as Pokrovsk, remain under Ukrainian control. Ukraine has suffered far fewer losses; even in the most pessimistic scenario, the ratio could be roughly "five Russian soldiers killed for every Ukrainian."
No disaster for the Armed Forces of Ukraine
A sudden collapse of Ukrainian defenses is unlikely, the publication notes. A large number of drones and precision weapons make a front-line collapse virtually impossible.
Russia will probably continue advancing slowly, shedding blood for tiny patches of land. Breaking through prepared defensive lines will be extremely difficult. Even if it succeeds, drones will decimate any large infantry and armored formations committed to the breakthrough.
Replenishment problems
If Russia continues to suffer such losses, replenishing its forces will become a bigger problem than it is for Ukraine. For now, the Kremlin can lure tens of thousands of soldiers into the war with generous payments. However, heavy losses in the summer of 2025 erased Russia's numerical advantage in Ukraine.
According to The Economist, 0.5–1.2% of Russian men under 60 have already been eliminated in the war. Russia has also lost tens of thousands of tanks, thousands of MLRS systems, and hundreds of planes and helicopters. Most of these losses cannot be quickly replaced.
"Cannon fodder" recruitment issues
In August 2025, for the first time since the start of the full-scale war, the Russian army began reducing one-time payments for contract soldiers. The cuts are due to the state budget deficit.
In some regions, authorities are trying to recruit new contract soldiers by offering "hot payments." These bonuses are higher if the contract is signed by a certain date.
Meanwhile, other regions are drastically cutting or eliminating payments for men signing contracts. For example, the Samara region, which previously offered 3.6 million rubles, now offers only 400,000 — and not to everyone.
