Russia could use Belarus to strike key Ukraine supply route from Poland, ISW warns
Russia may attack the Kyiv-Chop highway and supply routes from Poland via Belarus (photo: Getty Images)
Russia may use Belarusian territory to launch drone strikes on the M-06 Kyiv-Chop highway, which runs through western regions of Ukraine, including key supply routes from Poland, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that Russia may use Belarusian claims about cases of Ukrainian drones entering its airspace to justify using Belarusian territory to carry out "retaliatory" strikes against Ukraine.
Belarusian territory would allow Russia to conduct continuous drone strikes on Ukrainian ground lines of communication in western and northwestern Ukraine, which Russian drones currently cannot easily strike with precision and large payloads.
The ability of Russian forces to use Belarusian territory could allow Russian Shahed drones and cheaper Molniya drones to attack the M-06 highway, which runs through western Ukrainian regions, including key supply routes from Poland to Ukraine, as well as the railway connecting the two countries.
Analysts noted that Russians are already attacking western Ukrainian regions from their own territory, but launching drones from Belarus would allow Russian forces to use remotely operated Shahed and Molniya drones, increasing their precision and ability to hit moving targets along Ukrainian ground lines of communication.
"Volfovich's (Belarusian Security Council Secretary Alexander Volfovich - ed.) claims and recent Ukrainian warnings about Belarus suggest that Russia is setting informational conditions to further use Belarus for its own military purposes, including to strike strategically important GLOCs (ground lines of communication — supply and transport routes - ed.) in the rear of western Ukraine," the Institute for the Study of War added.
Belarus accused Ukraine of "almost daily" drone attacks
Yesterday, May 26, Belarus claimed that "Ukrainian combat drones" were allegedly crossing the border regularly.
Belarusian Security Council State Secretary Alexander Volfovich said that attempts by Ukrainian drones to cross the Belarusian border are allegedly recorded "almost daily."
According to him, the Belarusian side counted 116 such incidents in the past week alone, while air defense forces allegedly used response measures 59 times.
Minsk also claimed that some drones allegedly attempted to attack the Belarusian border infrastructure.
Head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation Andriy Kovalenko said that Belarus is "lying about Ukrainian drones" and trying to stage provocations in Russia's interests.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andriy Demchenko said that the Belarusian statements were "another attempt to accuse Ukraine of something and shift responsibility onto us."
At the same time, according to him, the Lukashenko regime is "once again claiming there are no threats to Ukraine from Belarus."
