Russia captured only 1.04% of Ukraine in 2025, ISW says
Photo: Russia's actual gains on the front lines in 2025 amounted to only 1.04% of Ukraine's territory (facebook com easternforce)
Russia continues to exaggerate its successes on the front lines, claiming to have captured more than 6,300 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2025. These statements do not correspond to the realities on the battlefield, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts drew attention to statements made by Russian chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov at a briefing for military attachés on December 18 and by Russian president Vladimir Putin on December 17.
Overestimated successes of Russia in Siversk, Kupiansk, and Kostiantynivka
Putin, exaggerating Russia's successes, claimed that Russian troops had allegedly captured Siversk. However, confirmed facts show that Russian troops have so far captured only about 77% of Siversk.
Gerasimov also said that Russian troops had captured Kupiansk and controlled 50% of Kostiantynivka. ISW analysts note that they have not seen any evidence of Russian advances in Kostiantynivka that come close to the figures announced.
According to ISW estimates, Russian troops have captured only about 1.6% of Kostiantynivka, and their presence is limited to about 5% of the city due to infiltration operations or isolated assaults.
“Even Russian milbloggers’ maximalist claims about Russian advances are not as extensive as Gerasimov’s, with milbloggers claiming that Russian forces have seized only about 11 percent of the town,” the ISW emphasized.
Actual area of captured territory
Gerasimov also stated that Russia had captured more than 6,300 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2025, exceeding Russian defense minister Andrey Belousov's December 17 statement of 6,000 square kilometers.
The ISW estimates that Russian troops actually seized about 4,700 square kilometers in 2025. Even the figure announced by Gerasimov covers only 1.04% of Ukraine's total area, analysts emphasize.
Analysts note that the exaggerated statements from Gerasimov and Belousov demonstrate the slow pace of the offensive and attempt to create the impression of Russia's alleged victory on the battlefield and the weakness of Ukraine's defense.
Gerasimov used the briefing to repeat Putin and Belousov's statements, likely to spread these narratives to an international audience.
ISW analysts recently told RBC-Ukraine that Russia has consistently signaled that it will not agree to a peace deal that does not include Ukraine's complete surrender or the fulfillment of Moscow's maximalist territorial demands.
