Russia begins 'Phase Zero' in buildup for potential war with NATO - ISW

On the evening of Friday, October 10, the Estonian government temporarily closed a section of the road near the state border between Russia and Estonia after Estonian border guards spotted a small group of Russian servicemen in the area without identification markings.

Meelis Saarepuu, head of the Southern Prefecture of the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board, stated on October 11 that the government closed the section of road between the villages of Varska and Saatse, which is nearly one kilometer long, for security reasons. Part of the road runs through Russian territory.

Saarepuu stated that, judging by their uniforms, the individuals spotted were not Russian border guards. In response to inquiries from Estonian border officials, Russia’s Federal Border Service claimed that the country’s activities in the area were routine operations.

War on the horizon?

On October 12, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said that Russian troops were acting somewhat more decisively and noticeably than before. However, he described exaggerated reports suggesting that the situation on the border was becoming increasingly tense.

Tsahkna also noted that the government plans to completely discontinue the use of this road in the future, as alternative routes that bypass Russian territory already exist or are under construction.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recalled that reports of a group of Russian servicemen near Estonian territory came amid incidents involving Russian military aircraft violating Estonia’s airspace on September 7 and 19.

Experts pointed out that Russia has recently intensified both covert and overt attacks against Europe. According to analysts, Russia has entered what is known as Phase Zero - a stage focused on shaping information and psychological conditions as a preparatory phase before a potential open war with NATO countries in the future.

“This event is the first instance of ISW observing “little green men” (a euphemism the Kremlin uses for the Russian military forces in unmarked uniforms) operating near a NATO state in the context of the “Phase Zero” campaign,” the ISW report stated.

Russian provocation over Estonia

On September 19, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes and headed toward the country’s capital, Tallinn.

Italian F-35 fighter jets stationed in the region were scrambled to intercept the intruders, preventing them from continuing their flight.

Following the incident, the Estonian government appealed to NATO to hold consultations under Article 4 of the Alliance’s charter.

The Kremlin cynically claimed that the fighter jets had not violated any rules and were flying strictly within international regulations.