Russia attempts to disrupt peace talks and sow discord between Ukraine and US - ISW

It is noted that Russian officials are using narratives about the fighting and Ukrainian Armed Forces' attacks on Russian territory to justify the refusal of peace talks with Ukraine and the continuation of the war for the domestic Russian audience.

As an example, the report mentions the shelling of the Sudzha gas metering station in the Kursk region, which occurred on the night of March 21. The Ukrainian General Staff denied any involvement in the attack, but the Kremlin unyieldingly blames the Ukrainian side for the incident.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Ukraine's denial of the sabotage at the Sudzha station demonstrates how much one can believe and trust Ukrainian officials. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova questioned how the United States would manage Ukraine, considering the possible violation by Ukraine of the moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure - an agreement that has yet to be fully finalized and implemented.

"Zakharova's and Peskov's comments are an effort to revive the narrative that Ukraine is the aggressor in this war, that Ukraine only acts under guidance or pressure from the West, and that the war in Ukraine is an existential risk to the Russian state to which Russia must respond," ISW believes.

Disruption of cooperation between Ukraine and the US

Analysts from the Institute also note that the Kremlin has revived narratives accusing the Ukrainian Armed Forces of attacks on Russian nuclear power plants and committing war crimes against Russian civilians, to undermine trust in Ukraine and amplify the fabricated existential threat for the domestic audience.

This is confirmed by the fact that on March 21, the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation released a summary of current criminal investigations, cases, and sentences handed down to Ukrainian soldiers and high-ranking commanders for allegedly striking the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) and civilian populations.

"ISW recently assessed that the Kremlin was preparing to intensify narratives accusing Ukrainian forces of war crimes in Kursk Oblast to discredit the Ukrainian military, erode Western support for Ukraine, and spoil or delay talks about temporary ceasefire proposals," the report states.

The Institute noted that throughout the entire large-scale war, the Kremlin has consistently promoted these narratives in an attempt to divert attention from Russia's actions.

Analysts reminded that Russian forces have committed numerous war crimes on the battlefield and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, militarized and put the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant at risk of disaster. The report also reminded that on February 14, a Russian long-range drone Shahed struck the protective shelter of reactor No. 4 at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.

Given these facts, ISW believes that the Kremlin may attempt to use its narratives, which falsely depict Ukraine as recklessly endangering Russian nuclear power plants and being a dangerous operator of the Zaporizhzhia NPP.

"The Kremlin may seek to leverage its narratives falsely portraying Ukraine as recklessly endangering Russian NPPs and being an unsafe operator of the ZNPP to spoil US-Ukrainian bilateral talks, given recent US and Ukrainian official statements about possible US involvement in Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including the Russian-occupied ZNPP," the ISW report states.

Shelling of the Sudzha Gas Metering Station

On the night of Friday, March 21, the Sudzha Gas Metering Station was shelled. A fire broke out at the impact site. Russian public channels, followed by officials, blamed Ukraine for the attack.

However, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine officially stated that the station was shelled by Russian forces in an attempt to shift the blame onto Ukraine.