Russia attacks Ukraine's Sumy and Kharkiv regions to create front-line collapse illusion — ISW

ISW analysts analyzed the combat activity of Russian troops in the area of Hrabovske in the Sumy region and Sotnytskyi Kozachok in the Kharkiv region. According to their assessment, the Kremlin may present these local attacks on border villages as part of an alleged new large-scale offensive to reinforce the false narrative of a general collapse of Ukrainian defenses.

At the same time, ISW emphasizes that there are no real signs of a rapid collapse of the front, and Russia's victory is not inevitable.

Analysts note that Russian troops have not created the conditions for a large-scale offensive across the international border in northern Ukraine. The institute has found no evidence of Russia's preparation or ability to conduct a significant offensive operation in this region.

"Significant offensive operation across the international border area into northern Ukraine. Much of the Sumy and Kharkiv Oblast border area, including near Hrabovske has been dormant since late Summer 2025. The frontline near Sotnytskyi Kozachok has been dormant since Summer 2024," the report says.

New Russian provocations

According to the ISW forecast, in the coming days or weeks, Russia may carry out new limited attacks across the border as part of this cognitive warfare campaign to influence the course of peace negotiations. The Kremlin and Russian media are likely to accompany such actions with loud statements, presenting them as the beginning of a new offensive.

"The appearance of new small-scale tactical attacks punctuating the northern frontline and intensified Russian informational agitation around such activity would not indicate an actual new major ground offensive, however. Such activity would indicate that the primary objective of these tactical assaults is to achieve informational effects and not seize territory as part of a broader offensive," analysts say.

The ISW adds that their assessment may change only if Russian forces begin preparations for full-scale ground operations, in particular, the transfer of additional units to the area of responsibility of the Northern Group of Forces. As of now, there are no such signs, analysts note.

Background

Earlier, reports spread in the media about the possible breakthrough of Russian troops across the state border in the Sumy region and their advance to the village of Hrabovske. Russian troops could forcibly take more than 50 residents to Russia, allegedly for filtration measures, and also move towards other settlements.

At the same time, the Sumy regional military administration emphasized that, against the backdrop of the deteriorating security situation in border communities, the evacuation of the civilian population is continuing. In particular, according to the Sumy regional military administration, some residents of the Krasnopillia community who had previously refused to leave their homes had to be transported using armored vehicles.

Later, Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets confirmed that on December 18, Russian troops illegally detained about 50 civilians from the village of Hrabovske in the Sumy region. According to him, the people were held without communication and in inappropriate conditions, and on December 20, they were forcibly transported to the Russian territory.

In turn, Viktor Trehubov, head of the communications department of the Joint Forces Group, said that on the evening of December 20, Russian troops did indeed take about 50 people, mostly civilian men, from the village.

Later, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine, he clarified that fighting continued in Hrabovske.

"As a result of the enemy’s rapid advance, Ukrainian Defense Forces units withdrew from several positions in the Hrabovske area. Fighting is ongoing in the village. Despite some media reports, Russian forces are currently absent in the neighboring village of Ryasne," he says.