Russia aims to fracture Ukraine's power grid into isolated 'islands,' - ISW
Illustrative photo: Russia wants to divide Ukraine's energy system into "islands" (GettyImages)
An intensified campaign of long-range strikes by Russia against Ukraine's energy infrastructure aims to split the country’s power system into separate "energy islands," cutting them off from production, supply, and electricity transmission, according to a new analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Autumn and winter strikes severely impact the power grid
Analysts note that Russia’s intense attacks in autumn 2025 and winter 2025–2026 have significantly worsened Ukraine’s energy network and disproportionately affected the civilian population.
ISW believes Moscow is attempting to reduce Ukraine’s electricity generation capacity and its ability to provide heat to the population during the peak of winter.
Kremlin seeks to demoralize the population and undermine the economy
Experts assess that the intensified attacks are an attempt by Moscow to:
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Weaken Ukraine's energy security
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Reduce its industrial output
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Demoralize the Ukrainian public through large-scale electricity and heating outages
ISW emphasizes that these strikes are systematic and long-term in nature.
Ukraine urgently needs strengthened air defense
Analysts stress that the continuation of Russia's destructive campaign demonstrates Ukraine's urgent need for additional air defense systems and ammunition.
American Patriot systems are particularly critical, as they are capable of effectively countering Russian ballistic missiles.
A multi-layered defense system is required
In addition to Patriot systems, Ukraine needs partner support to develop a diversified air defense network, including:
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Interceptor drones
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Well-equipped mobile fire units
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Fighter aircraft
According to ISW, this comprehensive approach is key to protecting both energy infrastructure and civilians.
Energy emergency in Ukraine
On January 13, Ukraine declared a state of emergency in the energy sector due to serious electricity supply issues amid severe cold.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also mentioned the possibility of easing the curfew, noting that the decision would not apply nationwide.
Meanwhile, the government classified buildings with electric heating as critical infrastructure to prevent power shutdowns.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs clarified that curfew easing is possible in regions under the energy emergency. On January 16, the Cabinet of Ministers allowed regional authorities to introduce more flexible rules during the energy crisis.
