Putin tries to persuade West to take actions that violate Ukraine's sovereignty - ISW

The report reminded that during his speech at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday, June 14, Putin laid out his uncompromising demands for Ukraine's capitulation as a precondition for peaceful negotiations. In particular, the dictator demands that Kyiv recognize the illegal annexation by Russia of the occupied and uncontrolled territories in eastern and southern Ukraine, thus trying to disrupt the Global Peace Summit on June 15-16 in Switzerland.

Empty promise of peace

In the ISW report, they recalled Putin's words that Russia is ready to agree to a ceasefire and peaceful negotiations. In return, Kyiv must completely withdraw its troops from the currently controlled areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, which Moscow illegally declared annexed in September 2022. Also, at Putin's demand, Ukraine must officially abandon its NATO membership aspirations.

The Institute's analysts also noted Putin's unconvincing statement that Russian forces would immediately ensure compliance with the ceasefire regime and guarantee the unhindered and safe withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the four regions.

"Putin unconvincingly claimed that Russian forces will immediately enforce the ceasefire and will guarantee the unhindered and safe withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the four regions, a promise that rings particularly hollow following months of Russian war crimes against Ukrainian civilians and prisoners of war (POWs), and numerous Russian violations of the Minsk Accords ceasefire between 2015 and 2022. Putin demanded that the international community recognize the four illegally annexed and occupied regions as part of Russia and lift all Western sanctions against Russia in the event of a peaceful resolution to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a demand which will irrevocably damage the principle of state sovereignty and the inviolability of international borders," the report says.

ISW also reminded that Putin reiterated his previous conditions for peace, namely that Ukraine must agree to complete demilitarization and denazification (overthrow of the current Ukrainian government and its replacement with pro-Russian puppets) and abandon its aspirations to join any external security blocs. He also stated that for any peace format without Russia's involvement, it is impossible to resolve the war in Ukraine and that the West's and Ukraine's policy against negotiations with Russia is idiotic.

ISW analysts noted that Putin's demands continue to reflect his longstanding ultimatums, which are based on assumptions that deny the existence of an independent and sovereign Ukraine.

"The Kremlin is not interested in good faith negotiations with Ukraine and only feigns its interest in negotiations as part of a wider informational effort intended to convince the West to preemptively make concessions that violate Ukraine's sovereignty," the ISW report said.

The proposal by the Russian President to create an alternative Eurasian and global security system with the support of China was called a subversion of NATO by the Institute for the Study of War. The report called Putin's explanation sufficiently vague, but recognized it as aligning with his long-term strategic goal of undermining Western unity, dissolving the Alliance from within, and disrupting the current world order.

Overall, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War characterized Putin's speech as aimed at deceiving the international community and undermining participation in the Peace Summit in Switzerland.

"The purposeful intensification of Kremlin rhetoric is part of Russia's reflexive control campaign that aims to push the West to self-deter and adopt policies that are in Russia's interests. Putin's June 14 statements are the latest in Kremlin efforts to manipulate the West, and Putin likely timed his speech to coincide with several key events and discussions in the West. Putin likely aims to weaken Western unity in supporting Ukraine on the eve of the June 15-16 Global Peace Summit and following the June 13 Group of Seven (G7) and Ukraine Defense Contract Group meetings," the ISW report said.

The Institute also believes that Putin is trying to prevent the continuation of Western sanctions against Russia imposed by the US and the UK on June 13.

Vladimir Putin's peacekeeping initiatives

On Friday, June 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, during which he outlined his conditions for starting peaceful negotiations with Ukraine.

According to political experts, Putin's new ultimatum regarding peace talks is intended to stimulate the West to provide even greater support to Ukraine.

Analysts believe that Putin aims to fully occupy four regions of Ukraine, but the Russian army is unable to capture them by military means.

For more information on Putin's hidden new ultimatums and why they are unacceptable for Ukraine, read the article by RBC-Ukraine.