Putin to persist in occupying Ukraine after ceasefire - ISW

The report highlights that Russian forces are positioned on the left bank of the Dnieper River, opposite Kherson, approximately 25 kilometers from Zaporizhzhia and 30 kilometers from Kharkiv.

Analysts from the institute suggest that Russian forces on the Dnieper could use a ceasefire to prepare for an extremely difficult, unopposed river crossing, which would significantly increase the chances of success in this operation.

"Stopping a well-prepared, major mechanized offensive cold is extremely rare in war, which means that a renewed Russian assault would likely threaten both Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia cities, as well as key cities in the Donetsk "fortress belt," almost immediately," claims ISW.

The report also notes that Russia is constructing a major highway and railway to connect large cities in the occupied regions of Ukraine and Russia. This infrastructure is expected to strengthen Russia's control over the occupied territories and enhance its ability to transport and supply troops in preparation for a potential future offensive in southern Ukraine.

Military aid to increase

The Institute for the Study of War also believes that the United States and European countries will need to provide military aid to Ukraine more quickly, in significantly larger volumes, and at higher costs as the final ceasefire line approaches the current front line.

According to analysts, Ukraine will likely need a larger army with greater capabilities to play a critical role in deterring and, if necessary, defeating future aggression along the current front line (both within Ukraine and along the international border with Russia), which spans over 2,100 kilometers.

"Enforcing a ceasefire along the current frontline would also require the commitment of large numbers of Western forces. Helping Ukraine regain strategically critical territory, as Trump has suggested he intends to do, could significantly reduce the cost and difficulty of securing a future peace. A ceasefire along more defensible positions would also place Russian forces in a more disadvantaged position for renewed offensive operations, making future Russian aggression less likely," as the report follows.

Kremlin's territorial claims

According to the ISW, Russia's leadership maintains its maximalist territorial claims on all occupied Ukrainian territories and a significant portion of the unoccupied country. This is evident from the demands of high-ranking Kremlin officials, including dictator Vladimir Putin, to cede the entire Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, including those areas that are not yet occupied by Russian forces.

Recently, Putin stated that "Novorossiya" is an integral part of Russia, and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov defined "Novorossiya" as all of eastern and southern Ukraine, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Mykolaiv regions.

"Continued Kremlin statements demanding that Ukraine cede unoccupied Ukrainian territory indicate that the Kremlin and Putin remain committed to these territorial goals despite ongoing negotiations," ISW states.

Security guarantees as concession to Putin

Analysts believe that a Western agreement to provide security guarantees for Ukraine would be a significant concession to Putin. The Institute reminded that the dictator has repeatedly called on Kyiv to permanently abandon its NATO ambitions and reject any future foreign military aid.

ISW noted that Russian officials seem to be gaining increasing support for their demands within Russian society, despite the costs of the prolonged war. Putin is likely still committed to ensuring the return of Russian investments in the war, which he considers sufficient.

"Putin and Kremlin officials have been regularly broadcasting their demands for Ukrainian territorial and security concessions beyond the current frontlines to the Russian people, underscoring how unlikely Putin is to abandon his ambitions in Ukraine even after a ceasefire," concluded ISW representatives.

Security guarantees for Ukraine

The administration of US President Donald Trump initiated a negotiation process aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.

Following talks in Saudi Arabia on March 11-12, the US side proposed a 30-day ceasefire. Ukraine agreed to this proposal but warned that Russian forces might violate the ceasefire.

However, Putin did not give final approval for the ceasefire, stating that Ukraine could use this period to arm and train its military and mobilized troops.

Michael Waltz, a National Security Advisor, did not rule out that an agreement between Ukraine and Russia might involve a mechanism for territorial exchanges in return for security guarantees. He also stated that Ukraine's NATO membership is highly unlikely.