Putin stunned, allies look for options: Analyst breaks down risks of US ultimatum
Photo: Vladimir Putin, Russian leader (Getty Images)
The Kremlin currently lacks a clear strategy for responding to the US ultimatum regarding the war in Ukraine, while key Russian oil buyers - China, India, and Türkiye - are cautiously assessing the risks of possible secondary sanctions, which could severely complicate their oil trade with Moscow, Mykhailo Samus, Director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, says in an interview with the YouTube channel of RBC-Ukraine.
"I don't think the Kremlin has any strategy right now. Putin is known as a tactician. I'm sure he doesn't even have a concrete decision yet on how to respond to the situation," Samus said.
An expert believes Moscow is now seeking advice from China, India, and Türkiye - the top importers of Russian oil - on potential scenarios for settling the situation.
"Obviously, the top three are China, India, and Türkiye - these are the countries that buy the most Russian oil," Samus noted.
An analyst said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is unlikely to continue cooperation with Russia unless there are additional benefits.
“Erdoğan knows this oil is blood-stained, and that it could cause him problems with Trump. So he'll either back out or demand steep discounts - 50% or more," Samus suggested.
India has already signaled it could replace Russian oil if needed, as there is no looming shortage on the global market. Samus pointed out that new oil suppliers are expected to emerge by fall.
According to an expert, China is pursuing a strategic goal - trying to support Russia while also preserving access to European markets.
"For China, access to European markets is far more important. They won't be allowed in if they provide military support to Russia," Samus explained.
Still, an analyst acknowledged that Beijing may see supporting Russia as a useful tool to weaken US global influence - a long-term goal of China's foreign policy.
Samus warned that the US could soon impose sanctions on countries that continue trading with Russia - discussions are reportedly already underway at the international level.
"I'm sure this will happen before September 2. There are clear consultations happening on this issue," an expert said.
Samus urged countries still buying Russian oil to urgently find alternatives to avoid economic risks in the fall-winter period.
Trump's changing approaches towards Russia
As reported earlier, US President Donald Trump has warned that countries continuing to purchase Russian exports could face sanctions if Moscow doesn't reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within 50 days.
According to Reuters, the tariffs being imposed could hit Russian oil exports to China, India, and Türkiye, its primary energy clients, particularly hard.
India, one of the largest importers, has already indicated it's willing to walk away from Russian oil if sanctions kick in.
Meanwhile, the US State Department confirmed that Trump is determined to aggressively pursue his vision for ending the war in Ukraine, including applying global economic pressure.
