Ukrainian analyst on results of Istanbul talks: Putin’s baseline scenario revealed

"This could have been predicted. Russia’s main strategy is to delay as much as possible, turning the process into so-called negotiations, but without stopping the fighting. As their demands clearly show, what kind of ceasefire can there be under such conditions? They say that the fighting should be the accompaniment and the main part of the negotiations," Samus said.

In other words, according to him, Russia is conducting aggression and thereby achieving something on the diplomatic front. That is Russian diplomacy.

"These negotiations have shown that the baseline scenario for Putin remains launching a summer military campaign against Ukraine. What happens next will depend on the results of these operations and the economic developments. It is very important for us and the Western countries to finally make a decision, because Putin has managed to buy a few days," the analyst noted.

He recalled that the countries of the Coalition of the Willing and US President Donald Trump had promised to impose sanctions if Putin did not agree to a ceasefire. The deadline was May 12.

"Today is already the 16th, and the Russians are managing to dodge. What’s happening now? There’s seemingly a complete collapse of the negotiations, but they’re still exchanging a thousand for a thousand. So Trump can say, ‘Well, look, there is some progress, let’s not ruin this positive atmosphere. Let’s not break the constructive momentum as it's taking off. Let’s hold off on imposing sanctions,’" Samus added.

Ukraine–Russia talks in Istanbul

Today, May 16, negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations took place in Istanbul. This was the first contact between the countries in three years of full-scale war.

According to media reports, the meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations lasted just over an hour. However, they failed to achieve significant progress toward peace.

Later, it became known that the countries agreed to exchange prisoners in a 1000 for 1000 format.

During the talks, the possibility of a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin was also raised.

At the same time, The Economist correspondent Oliver Carroll reported that the Russian delegation, during the negotiations in Istanbul, threatened to seize two more Ukrainian regions — Kharkiv and Sumy — and to continue the war indefinitely.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that during the negotiations, the Russian delegation put forward a number of unacceptable demands that do not align with Ukraine’s interests. However, Ukraine held its ground, stayed on message, and steered the discussion back to the points that matter to it.

More details on the talks in Istanbul can be found in the RBC-Ukraine material.