Putin seeks capitulation of Ukraine in Istanbul, ISW says
Photo: Negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022 (Getty Images)
Vladimir Putin expressed a desire to resume direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine based on the draft Istanbul protocols of 2022. These unsigned documents effectively amount to Ukraine’s capitulation, says the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Putin made the statement following a proposal by the US, Ukraine, and the EU for a 30-day ceasefire starting May 12. The Russian side rejected this proposal and insisted on negotiations starting May 15.
Putin's aide, Yury Ushakov, said that the composition of the Russian delegation for the negotiations in Istanbul would be announced soon and stated that the dialogue must take into account the previous draft agreements.
Terms equivalent to capitulation
Russia demands Ukraine adopt a neutral status, renounce NATO membership, and ban the deployment of foreign troops. The draft also imposes strict limits on Ukraine’s armed forces: no more than 85,000 soldiers, 342 tanks, and 519 artillery systems. The range of Ukrainian missiles must not exceed 40 km, allowing Russian forces to deploy without the threat of strikes.
These demands were made early in the war when Russia was advancing actively. Now, the Kremlin is returning to the same conditions despite setbacks on the front lines, according to the ISW.
Rejection of ceasefire and increased pressure
Putin rejected the joint ceasefire proposal, continuing to insist on Ukraine’s full capitulation. He demands the elimination of the "root causes" of the war, which the Kremlin lists as NATO expansion, and the discrimination of Russian-speaking people in Ukraine. At the same time, Russia is not proposing any reciprocal restrictions for its own military.
Thus, Moscow is trying to drag out negotiations and continue offensive actions under the guise of diplomacy.
Kremlin running an information campaign in the West
Putin is ramping up activity in Western media to present the terms of capitulation as reasonable. He is counting on influencing public opinion and the future US administration. These actions are aimed at undermining unity between Ukraine, the US, and Europe on the issue of a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to attack Ukrainian positions and prepare for further aggression.
Ukraine wants to negotiate but on its own terms
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed his readiness for negotiations on May 15 in Turkiye. He emphasized that he is waiting for Putin in Ankara but expects Russia to agree to the joint ceasefire proposed by the US, Ukraine, and the EU.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan supported the idea of negotiations, noting that a ceasefire would create conditions for genuine peace.
