Putin's summit with Trump and Xi: Why a group photo may be his biggest win
Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping (collage: RBC-Ukraine)
A potential trilateral meeting between Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin in November would be more symbolic for the Kremlin leader than a forum for a real "division of the world," according to political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko.
The expert said the desire to hold a summit involving the three leading powers was a longstanding "obsession" of the Russian president.
"Putin wants Yalta, Yalta 2.0. It has long been his dream. He wants to see himself as a new Stalin, or at least appear to be one. Stalin negotiated with Roosevelt and Churchill, and now Putin hopes to negotiate with Trump and Xi Jinping. The image itself is extremely important to him, even without specific agreements on spheres of influence," Fesenko noted.
Why Shenzhen summit will not become a 'new Yalta'
The political analyst doubted the Russian leader would gain anything more from the meeting than a group photo.
First, such meetings held on the sidelines of major events typically last no more than one to two hours, making comprehensive decisions impossible. Second, talks involving all three leaders may not take place at all.
"It is in China's interests and, I hope, in the interests of the United States to hold separate bilateral talks. Trump should negotiate separately with Putin and Xi Jinping, while China's leader should meet separately with the others. That makes sense tactically. They may meet as a group of three, but no one should expect any sensational breakthroughs," the expert stressed.
No agreements will work without Ukraine and EU
Even under the worst-case scenario for Ukraine, any behind-the-scenes agreements between the three countries would remain on paper unless Kyiv and its European partners supported them.
The expert recalled that attempts to determine security arrangements without accounting for Ukraine's position have repeatedly failed, as last year's summit in Anchorage showed.
Background and context
Kremlin's initiative: According to media reports, on October 9, Vladimir Putin proposed holding a trilateral meeting with Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18–19 during a conversation with Donald Trump. The goal would be to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.
Zelenskyy's reaction: The head of state emphasized that Putin's emergence from international isolation had already begun, but noted that Kyiv must be consulted if Ukraine is to be discussed.
Foreign Ministry's position: Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha sharply criticized behind-the-scenes negotiations without Ukraine, arguing they would only encourage Russian aggression.
State of negotiations: Trump suggested a meeting to discuss nuclear disarmament. Meanwhile, the Kremlin acknowledges that, as of mid-October, there is no Washington's and Beijing's clear agreement or established agenda.
