Putin intentionally blocks path to peace agreement with Ukraine - ISW
Russian President Vladimir Putin (photo: Getty Images)
Russian President Vladimir Putin has deliberately cornered himself into a dead end, where peace without achieving military objectives does not appear as a victory in the eyes of his army and society, according to a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to a source from Reuters within the Kremlin, Putin does not believe that now is the time to end the war, as Russian society and the military would not understand such a decision.
“The Kremlin has been engaged in a concerted multi-year effort to justify Putin’s maximalist war objectives as necessary for the existence of the Russian state and to garner societal support for a protracted war until Russia achieves such goals,” ISW noted.
The report cites results from state and independent sociological surveys conducted in early 2025, which showed that the majority of Russians support continuing the war in Ukraine.
Analysts believe that the Kremlin is likely leveraging these sentiments, sentiments it has actively shaped itself, to justify the leader’s decision to continue waging war.
Additionally, the report states that Putin is deepening Russian society’s dependence on military spending by actively investing in Russia’s defense-industrial base, which now makes up a significant portion of the country’s domestic production.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is convinced that a sharp reduction in Russia’s defense spending would likely lead to an economic downturn in the medium term.
This, in turn, further motivates Putin to pursue a prolonged war in Ukraine and to initiate new armed conflicts despite heavy battlefield losses and serious economic constraints.
“Putin has intentionally cultivated Russian society's commitment to his war aims and has not set conditions to take any off-ramps to accept a peace settlement that falls short of his original war aims,” ISW experts conclude.
Trump’s peace initiatives
At the end of July, US President Donald Trump shortened the deadline for Russia to reach peace with Ukraine from the initial 50 days to 10 days, setting a new deadline of August 8.
If the Kremlin refuses to negotiate with Kyiv, the US will impose sanctions on Russia and countries that purchase oil from Russia.
Today, August 6, US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff is visiting Moscow to discuss the terms of a peace agreement.
According to media reports, Washington is preparing sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet if Putin rejects a ceasefire with Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin is considering the possibility of a ceasefire in principle to avoid new sanctions from the US. However, Russia does not intend to fully end the war.
