Putin exaggerates Russia's battlefield gains by 45 times — ISW
Photo: Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that, since the beginning of 2026, the Russian military has allegedly seized 6,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and 310 settlements. However, Russia's actual gains are 45 times smaller, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On October 16, Putin and Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov made new false claims about the Russian army's alleged steady advance in the Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions, attributing the capture of 310 settlements to the Kremlin since the beginning of the year.
Analysts note that the Kremlin continues to disseminate false information about advances across the entire front line to create a fabricated narrative of widespread military success for Russia.
In this way, Russia is attempting to pressure Ukraine and its Western allies into capitulating to Moscow's demands.
During a visit to the command post of the Joint Forces Group on October 16, Putin stated that the occupying forces had seized approximately 6,500 square kilometers of territory since the beginning of the year.
Gerasimov, in turn, credited Russian forces with seizing over 1,800 square kilometers and 92 settlements since September 1.
The ISW has obtained evidence indicating that since the beginning of the year, Russian forces have captured approximately 100 square kilometers and 69 settlements, while since September 1, they have suffered net losses of 122 square kilometers.
According to the ISW, Russian forces have been losing an average of seven kilometers per day since the beginning of October 2026, which contradicts Putin's false claim of gains on the front lines.
Gerasimov also once again lied about encircling the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the north of the Kharkiv region and capturing 461 square kilometers and 28 settlements. The ISW calls the claims of encirclement baseless and unproven.
Yevgeny Nikiforov, commander of Russia's Northern Military District, stated that the security zone along the Russian-Ukrainian border stretches for more than 600 km, 465 km (or about 75%) of which are allegedly under Russian control.
The ISW estimates that Russian forces control only 205.77 square kilometers of this zone, stretching from the E101 Kyiv–Hlukhiv highway to the adjacent front line in the direction of Velykyi Burluk.
Nikiforov also claimed that Russian forces captured 14 settlements and over 300 square kilometers in the Sumy region during the summer and fall of 2026. ISW reports that 99.1 square kilometers in the Sumy region have been occupied since the beginning of the year.
In the Donetsk region, Gerasimov credited the Russian army with capturing approximately 500 square kilometers and 23 settlements since September 2026. Putin claimed that Ukraine allegedly still controls 2,748 square kilometers, or about 10% of the Donetsk region.
In contrast, the ISW reports that since September, Russian forces have lost more than 198 square kilometers in the Donetsk region, while Ukrainian forces currently control 5,530 square kilometers, or more than 20% of the region.
In particular, Gerasimov lied about the capture of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, entering Druzhkivka, and reaching the outskirts of Kramatorsk.
According to analysts, Russian forces are at least 12 kilometers from Druzhkivka and nine kilometers from Kramatorsk, even taking into account efforts by small groups to infiltrate the area.
Gerasimov also credited Russian army units with capturing Dobropillia and its surrounding areas, but the ISW found no evidence that the Russians had advanced north of Dobropillia or entered the city, apart from limited infiltration efforts that do not allow for control of the territory.
In the Zaporizhzhia region, according to Putin, Ukraine allegedly controls only 16.5% of the territory. However, evidence obtained by ISW indicates that the Ukrainian Defense Forces control 24.6%.
Analysts also refuted Gerasimov's claims that Russia's troops are located five kilometers from Zaporizhzhia. In reality, the Russians are at least 20.95 km from the city, or 11.6 km when accounting for Russian infiltration efforts.
According to the ISW, Russian forces have captured 104.5 square kilometers and 8 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region since September, despite Gerasimov's false claims of controlling 180 square kilometers and 10 villages.
Analysts note that the Russians' exaggerated claims of successful advances are part of a broader cognitive warfare campaign aimed at falsely creating the impression that Russian troops are rapidly advancing on the battlefield, to force Ukraine and its Western partners to agree to Russia's negotiating demands.
Vladimir Putin ordered his army to continue massive strikes on energy facilities in Ukraine.
Putin made this statement after Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, reported to him on the start of a campaign of massive strikes against Ukraine's energy facilities, which are evidently part of the civilian infrastructure.
