Oil prices slide back near pre-Iran war levels — Reuters
Photo: Oil prices have plummeted to pre-war levels (Getty Images)
Global oil prices continue to fall and have almost returned to the level seen before the war with Iran began—the market is reacting to the resumption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters.
How prices have changed
As of this morning:
- Brent crude fell by $1.22 (-1.65%) to $72.52 per barrel
- WTI fell by $1.02 (-1.45%) to $69.32 per barrel.
Both contracts hit their lowest levels since February 27.
On Wednesday, Brent lost over $3 in a single day, and WTI lost nearly as much.
The main reason is the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following an agreement between the US and Iran. The market is pricing in the return of Middle Eastern oil faster than expected.
"The speed of this decline has caught plenty off guard as markets price in a much faster return of Middle Eastern barrels than most had anticipated just a fortnight ago," notes IG analyst Tony Sycamore.
Additional pressure on prices comes from Iran’s intentions to ramp up exports following a temporary easing of US sanctions.
What US Energy Secretary say
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reports that shipment volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have already approached pre-war levels.
At least 20 million barrels have passed through the strait over the past 24 hours.
It will take several weeks for traffic to resume fully—the strait still needs to be cleared of mines. Wright also states that oil would continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz even if the agreement with Iran is not honored, and that Tehran will no longer be able to block this route.
Analysts' forecasts
Macquarie analysts expect the market to normalize quickly. Their forecast for average prices in the third quarter is:
- Brent - $67 per barrel
- WTI - $62 per barrel.
By comparison, average prices in the second quarter were $94 and $87, respectively.
Strait of Hormuz
Global oil prices began to plummet as early as mid-June 2026, after the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumed operations. Tankers are once again openly passing through the world’s main oil corridor.
Just a few weeks ago, traffic through the strait was paralyzed due to the threat of Iranian missiles, drones, and mines. The International Maritime Organization stated that it had received security guarantees that would allow hundreds of ships to leave the Persian Gulf.
The breakthrough came after Washington and Tehran reported progress in negotiations to end the war. The US issued Iran a 60-day license to sell oil on the global market.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also stated that passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be free of charge. No country in the world will support the imposition of a fee for it.
