Number of attacks on Ukraine increases sevenfold: Estonia warns of Russia’s new tactic

Kiviselg emphasized that Russia is increasingly targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, and although Ukrainians have managed to shoot down most of the drones and missiles, given their large number, it is inevitable that some will reach their targets.

Russia shows disregard for international law

He noted that this June had the highest number of civilian casualties in the three years of war.

"Given the completely different positions of both sides, it is hard to imagine anything changing in the near future. As in previous cases, the only tangible outcome this time was another prisoner exchange," Kiviselg said.

At the same time, he pointed out that, judging by the condition of the freed Ukrainian prisoners of war, it must be acknowledged that Russia is openly demonstrating its disregard for the Geneva Convention and international law in general.

According to him, Russia’s contempt for basic human rights is also reflected in how it treats its own soldiers.

"There is growing evidence and more cases showing how Russian unit commanders torture and even kill their own soldiers — either as part of so-called disciplinary enforcement or simply for blackmail," Kiviselg said.

According to him, this is no longer an isolated occurrence but rather reflects the nature of Russia’s deeply corrupt system.

Corruption in Russia

Kiviselg added that the scale of corruption is confirmed, for example, by the wave of arrests of the top Russian military leadership last year.

"One could even say that it is precisely because of widespread corruption in the Russian army over recent decades that a so-called negative selection operates, where promotions and ranks are given not to those with the best leadership qualities or the most talented, but to those who are loyal or who pay for it," he explained.

Given the above, Kiviselg said it is no surprise that despite the Russians’ multiple advantages in technology and manpower, they have not achieved any significant success at the operational-tactical level — neither in recent months nor even in the past week.

Russia’s priorities

He said that the main focus of the Russians continues to be Donetsk, where the most shelling occurs and where they have been trying for several months at all costs to isolate the Pokrovsk district.

"Being mostly heavily outnumbered, the Ukrainians here primarily use a war of attrition tactic, relying on well-prepared defensive positions," noted the head of the Intelligence Center of the Estonian Defense Forces.

At the same time, according to him, the Russians try to attack these positions day after day with minimal success and at the cost of heavy losses both in personnel and equipment.

"But, as has already been noted, human lives hold no value for the Russian political and military leadership," Kiviselg said.

Russia increases the scale of attacks on Ukraine

Kiviselg noted that the Russians’ disregard for human life is also reflected in the rising number of attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and residential areas, causing a sharp increase in civilian casualties.

"Since January of this year, Russia has carried out approximately 23,300 drone and missile attacks against Ukraine, which is over 600 percent more compared to the same period in 2023 (about 3,300)," he explained.

It should be noted that the increase in attacks, based on these figures, is sevenfold.

According to Kiviselg, as a result of these attacks, the number of civilian casualties rose by 53 percent compared to the same period in 2023, reaching almost 6,800, including nearly 1,100 killed and 5,700 wounded.

He pointed out that just in June of this year, over 1,500 people were killed or wounded in Ukraine, making this month the deadliest for civilians in the three years of war.

"In the current situation, it must be recognized that the best defense against drones is offense. Therefore, soon we may hear that Ukraine has taken measures to destroy drone manufacturing plants in Russia, such as Alabuga," Kiviselg concluded.

Earlier today, it became known that Russia has invested at least $3 billion in ramping up mass production of strike drones, including Shahed models.

Currently, over 900 companies in Russia are involved in the drone industry.

Meanwhile, according to a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Oleh Aleksandrov, Russia plans to produce 2 million FPV drones in 2025 alone.

Notably, according to Ukraine’s Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal, since the beginning of the year, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has delivered over one million FPV drones to the front.