No electricity, no heat: Are blackouts forcing Ukrainians to leave their homes?
Are Ukrainians planning to leave because of blackouts (photo: Getty Images)
Regular attacks by Russia on Ukraine’s energy system, combined with the coldest winter in years, have significantly complicated daily life for Ukrainians. However, outages of electricity, water, and heating have so far not prompted most people to move, according to a survey conducted in January 2026 by the research company Gradus.
Ukrainians not planning mass relocation
The survey found that 87% of Ukrainians have not moved because of attacks on energy infrastructure and the related disruptions to daily life.
Those most likely to relocate were residents of eastern Ukraine and Kyiv, the regions hardest hit by energy strikes. About 21% of people in the East and 18% of Kyiv residents reported temporarily moving.
How many Ukrainians have relocated (Gradus infographic)
Who moved and where
Among the 13% of respondents who were forced to relocate due to the energy crisis:
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60% moved within their own region
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50% moved to another region of Ukraine
Most of them plan to return home once the weather improves and the security situation stabilizes. However, 16% of residents in the East and 22% in the North currently have no plans to go back.
Do Ukrainians plan to relocate? (Gradus infographic)
Leaving the country isn’t a trend
Fewer than 10% of respondents said they are considering leaving Ukraine in the next six months. This figure is consistent with previous waves of the survey.
Even the large-scale attacks on the energy infrastructure have not led to an increase in migration intentions.
What could prompt Ukrainians to leave their homeland? (Gradus infographic)
Ukrainians adapt to winter
The survey also showed that a significant share of respondents prepared their homes in advance for the harsh winter, installing additional equipment or having autonomous energy sources. At the same time, an equally large portion of the population remains fully dependent on public utilities.
What motivates Ukrainians to relocate? (Gradus infographic)
What Gradus says
According to sociologist and Gradus founder Yevheniia Blyzniuk, the survey results show a high level of societal adaptation:
"Ukrainians who chose to stay at home during the war are unlikely to change that decision, even in the face of poor living conditions and cold. The tactic of energy-related terror makes life significantly harder but is not a factor that could trigger a new wave of mass migration," she said.
She added that after this winter, Ukrainians will prepare their homes even more thoroughly for the next cold season.
Preparing homes for hardships (Gradus infographic)
Optimism despite the war
Despite a harsh winter and the prospect of a prolonged war, a significant share of respondents remain optimistic, believing that Ukraine will emerge from the conflict stronger.
Perceptions of the war’s duration and impact (Gradus infographic)
