New Year under fire: Experts warn of Russian missile strikes and Oreshnik threats

Could a massive attack occur on New Year’s

According to Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies, after the missile strike on Ukraine during Christmas, Russia still has enough resources for two large-scale attacks. Additionally, the enemy continues to stockpile resources and receives assistance from North Korea.

"I think they are preparing to carry out one large-scale attack closer to New Year’s or even on New Year’s night. The second one will be about 7–10 days after New Year’s," Musiienko speculates.

He notes that the aggressor pursues not only military but also political goals ahead of the inauguration of newly elected US President Donald Trump. Therefore, according to the expert, the frequency of Russian attacks on Ukraine is likely to be high.

"The enemy will use its maximum resources. Then the Russians may take a pause and resume strikes in late January or early February." He also highlighted specific signs indicating the enemy’s preparation for potential massive strikes.

"Firstly, reconnaissance information. Secondly, aviation activity. For instance, aircraft are moved to and from the Engels airbase. The movement of aircraft delivering missiles can also be observed," Musiienko explained.

Meanwhile, military expert Vladyslav Selezniov also considers the possibility of a large-scale attack by the enemy, as Russia has previously resorted to Shahed drones and missiles during New Year’s celebrations.

"Undoubtedly, we must remain vigilant... But I don’t think we should tie our assessment of enemy actions to specific dates. They act entirely rationally. They have identified targets in Ukraine and use their available resources. That they still have resources is obvious," Selezniov stated in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

He reminded that as of November this year, the Russian army had accumulated 1,500 missiles.

Is a threat of new Oreshnik missile strike real

Occasionally, air raid alerts are declared across Ukraine due to the threat of an "Oreshnik" missile strike—a ballistic missile first used by the aggressor against Ukraine on November 21, hitting Dnipro.

Expert Musiienko emphasizes that the deployment of such a system is noticeable. Therefore, the Kapustin Yar range in Russia’s Astrakhan region is under constant surveillance, including by Ukraine’s partners.

"As soon as activity is observed there, an air raid alert is immediately announced to warn of potential threats. However, recent actions have been mainly demonstrative by Russia. They’ve shown readiness for attacks and conducted simulation launches but haven’t carried out actual launches," Musiienko explained.

He added that there is currently no information about a significant concentration of "Oreshnik" missiles at Kapustin Yar.

"If they are present, they are there in very limited numbers. Thus, such air raid alerts are precautionary measures issued as activity is monitored and corresponding signals are sent," Musiienko emphasized.

On the other hand, Selezniov shared that for him, the key marker of a real "Oreshnik" missile threat is the actions of the US Embassy in Ukraine.

"Only when they announce, as they did last time when Russia used 'Oreshnik' against Dnipro, a temporary closure of the embassy, will there be a real reason to worry. Otherwise, these Russian drills are merely psychological tactics," Selezniov said.

He provided an example of how, in the past, every time a Russian MiG-31K carrying Kinzhal missiles took off, a large-scale air raid alert was declared across Ukraine.

"As a result, life in Ukraine would come to a halt, as everyone stayed in shelters. However, the technical resource of the aircraft is limited. Thus, the enemy has reduced such flights but has found another way. They carry out movements and preparations at Kapustin Yar that don’t require serious resources," Selezniov said.

Moreover, he reminded that Moscow must notify Washington when launching medium-range ballistic missiles.

"This is done to avoid any 'unpleasant surprises,' where Washington might perceive such missile launches as a direct threat to its national security and respond with its entire nuclear arsenal against Russia. Therefore, there is an established notification protocol between Russia and the US for such actions," Selezniov added.

What were Russia’s New Year attacks in previous years

Ukrainians are now facing their third consecutive New Year in conditions of full-scale war. Russia’s penchant for "sacred dates" has been evident during this period.

For example, on December 31, 2022, on New Year’s Eve, Russian forces launched a massive missile strike primarily targeting residential and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

Kyiv, as well as the Khmelnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions, came under attack. Dozens of people were injured in the capital, and one person was killed. On New Year’s night, the enemy launched dozens of Shahed drones across Ukraine, damaging infrastructure facilities.

At the end of 2023, Ukrainians also welcomed the New Year to the sound of sirens. On December 29, the occupiers used 158 aerial targets (87 missiles and 27 drones). The attack killed 39 people and injured 159.

On the night of December 31, 2023, to January 1, 2024, Russians launched 90 Shahed drones and eight missiles at Ukrainian cities. Western and southern Ukraine were particularly targeted. In Odesa, a teenager was killed, and in Lviv, the Roman Shukhevych Museum burned to the ground, and a fire broke out at the university where Stepan Bandera studied.

This year, Russia last conducted a massive missile attack on Ukraine during Christmas. On December 25, Russia launched 184 missiles and drones, targeting energy infrastructure in seven Ukrainian regions.

Thermal power plants were hit, severely damaging equipment. One person was killed, and several were injured. As a result of the attack, Ukraine reintroduced scheduled power outages. Read more about the consequences in RBC-Ukraine's article.

Sources: exclusive comments of Oleksandr Musiienko, Head of the Center for Military Legal Studies, and Vladyslav Seleznov, military expert.