National Bank of Ukraine expects increasing 2023 financial aid up to $45 bln
NBU head Andrii Pyshnyi (facebook.com/NationalBankOfUkraine)
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its expectations for international assistance in 2023 to $45 billion. This is $3 billion more than in the summer macroeconomic forecast, according to NBU head Andrii Pyshnyi.
The total volume of international financial support in the form of loans and grants for this year is expected to be around $45 billion.
"These inflows remain the main source of covering the high state budget deficit, which will expand to 29% of GDP this year," Pyshnyi said.
According to him, Ukraine's need for external financing will be significant in the coming years, and the forecast relies on the regularity of funding.
"A necessary condition is Ukraine fulfilling its commitments to international partners. This will allow financing critical budget expenditures and avoiding its emission financing. In turn, the NBU will be able to maintain reserves of over $40 billion, despite significant interventions to keep currency market stability, including amid further measures for currency liberalization," Pyshnyi added.
NBU deputy head Serhii Nikolaichuk clarifies that the improved reserve forecast is linked to higher estimates of receiving international assistance. The budget for 2024 includes a significant deficit that can only be covered with the help of partners.
"Of course, there are fairly high risks that this official assistance may be less. These risks have increased over the last month or two. However, the assurances we receive from international partners give us reasons to use the amounts of international assistance in our forecast as a baseline scenario, which is $45 billion, whereas in the previous forecast, we included $42 billion," Nikolaichuk said.
There are concerns about whether Western partners will support Ukraine with finances in a timely manner and in the required amounts. For example, the United States wants to reduce direct budgetary support from $1.1 billion to $825 million per month. This is happening against the backdrop of the new conditions set by Republican Mike Johnson, a new speaker of the House of Representatives, for approving a large package that includes over $60 billion for Ukraine.
Additionally, Hungary has been blocking a European tranche of €500 million since May.
There are also risks of a disruption in the new tranche from the International Monetary Fund. For more details, read an article on RBC-Ukraine.
