Moscow's reliance on China rises even as trade declines, intel reports
Photo: Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on exports of energy and metals, most of which are sold to China, according to the press service of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
According to the intelligence service, in the first nine months of 2025, trade volumes between Russia and China fell to 163.6 billion USD, which is 9.4% less than in the same period of 2024.
In 2025, both China's exports to Russia decreased — by 11.3% (to 73.6 billion USD) — and Russian shipments to China dropped by 7.7% (to 90 billion USD).
The main factor behind the decline was lower energy prices. The value of Russia’s energy exports to China fell by 18.9%, or 14 billion USD, between January and September.
Crude oil exports dropped by 8.1% in physical volumes and by 21% in monetary terms due to the decline in Brent prices.
Another factor was oversaturation of the Russian market with Chinese cars. After record deliveries in 2024, demand fell by more than half — by 56%.
Additional pressure came from logistical disruptions. In the fall, long lines of trucks formed at the China–Kazakhstan border, and transport costs from China to Russia increased: by 25% by rail (to 5,000 USD) and by 35% by road (to 15,000 USD for a 20-ton truck).
Some maritime operators, including CStar Line (UAE) and STF Shipping (China), reduced voyages to Russian ports due to financial restrictions.
"The dependence of the Russian economy on exports of energy and metals, most of which are sold to China, makes it increasingly vulnerable to fluctuations in Chinese market demand and deepens its reliance on Beijing," the intelligence service noted.
Russia–China cooperation
Earlier, The Economist reported that China has become the main supplier for Russia’s war machine. It is believed that Beijing may have transferred lethal weapons to Moscow.
In April, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has evidence of China supplying weapons to Russia, although Beijing officially denies it.
According to Zelenskyy, Ukraine is also aware of more than 150 Chinese nationals fighting on Russia’s side. Ukrainian forces previously captured two Chinese fighters.
Meanwhile, according to a spokesperson for the Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia plans to produce 2 million FPV drones this year using Chinese components for the war against Ukraine.
