More challenging than elections: Why national census remains out of reach in Ukraine
Illustrative photo: National census in Ukraine remains out of reach (Vitalii Nosach/RBC-Ukraine)
There has only been one census in Ukraine throughout its history of independence. However, conducting one during the war, or even a year or two after it ends, is impractical. Physical obstacles, such as ongoing combat, also make it currently impossible, says Deputy Director of the Institute for Demography and Life Quality Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Oleksandr Hladun, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
Why census is currently impossible
The last all-Ukrainian census took place in 2001, the first and only census in independent Ukraine. A subsequent census was initially scheduled for 2011 but was repeatedly postponed due to financial and organizational issues.
According to demographer Oleksandr Hladun, it is impossible to organize a census during wartime, and it would also be dangerous.
"How can it be done near the frontline? During alarms, bombings? Especially in populous cities like Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson. Physically, it is just not possible, and it is unsafe," Рladun said. "Methodologically, after the war ends, we will need to wait a year or two until migration stabilizes."
He noted that after a year or two, it will become clear how many people will return to Ukraine from abroad, enabling a more accurate assessment of the population size. It will also clarify who can be counted as residents of Ukraine.
"There are even UN guidelines stating that a census should be conducted during periods of minimal migration activity. So, we will need to wait," Hladun noted.
Census and elections: Differences in conducting
Hladun added that conducting a census earlier would be unlikely due to the complexities of organizing it nationally. Preparations alone can take two years, and a census is more difficult to conduct than elections.
"In elections, people come to the polling station themselves. In a census, you have to physically visit each person, and some may not want to open the door, or may not be home. But everyone needs to be counted. Elections include only those 18 and older, while a census includes everyone, from newborns to the elderly," explained the demographer.
Illustrative photo: A national census has not been conducted in Ukraine since 2001 (RBC-Ukraine/Vitalii Nosach)
Can census be conducted via the Diia App?
Hladun believes that conducting a census through the "Diia" app (mobile app and web portal of e-governance in Ukraine) would be impractical and lead to data distortion. A census captures not only population size and geographic distribution but also household characteristics, ethnicity, language, employment, and migration.
The Diia app cannot cover all these aspects and only partially fills the demographic registry, which is about 60% complete. The family composition cannot be determined through registries or Diia alone.
"This could be a supplementary tool, but not a primary one. For instance, how do we know what language a person without Diia speaks or which nationality they identify with?" he asked.
Hladun mentioned that a census could have been conducted in 2020 before the COVID-19 pandemic hit.
"In this regard, we are similar to Uzbekistan, which also hasn't held a census in a long time, as well as to Afghanistan, Somalia, and other countries affected by wars or conflicts. We have missed two census cycles," he added.
The demographer also forecasted how many refugees might return from abroad and discussed which demographic data was classified in Ukraine during the war.
