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Latvian intelligence uncovers Russian operations targeting NATO

Latvian intelligence uncovers Russian operations targeting NATO Illustrative photo: Latvian intelligence exposed Russian actions against NATO in the Baltics (Getty Images)
Author: Liliana Oleniak

Russia has increased its surveillance of NATO military activity in the Baltic Sea. The Russians are also conducting demonstrations of force and provocations, according to Delfi.

According to Latvian intelligence, Russia is resorting to demonstrations of force and provocations, including violating airspace without permission and carrying out aggressive maneuvers near NATO aircraft and ships, which increases the likelihood of accidental military incidents.

The purpose of such provocations is likely to be to intimidate and test a potential adversary. There are also attempts to discredit the reaction of the countries of the region and their defense capabilities.

Intelligence reports that as part of the reform of the Russian Armed Forces in 2024, the Western Military District, which borders Latvia, was reorganized - the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts were created instead. According to MIDD, this was formally Russia's response to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO.

In addition, MIDD notes that in parallel with the war in Ukraine, Russia, at least at the formal level, has begun creating new units and reorganizing existing ones following the announced military reform plan.

In particular, a new army corps has been created in Karelia. At the same time, two motorized rifle brigades, which are part of the 6th combined-arms army and are located closest to Latvia, will be transformed into divisions. The Baltic Fleet Marine Brigade, located in the Kaliningrad enclave, will also be transformed into a division.

The Latvian intelligence report emphasizes that the creation or expansion of new military units does not currently indicate an actual increase in the military presence near Latvia's borders, since the bulk of Russian resources are still focused on the war in Ukraine.

The document also notes that after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, not only strategic, but also operational-tactical training in the Russian army has noticeably decreased, presumably due to a shortage of personnel and military equipment.

At the same time, the service emphasizes that in the current conditions, Russia does not have the capabilities for another strategic-level ground operation.

Russia is preparing for war with NATO

Earlier, we wrote that the Bundeswehr report stated that the Russian authorities are preparing for a large-scale war against NATO. Vladimir Putin likely wants to use force to achieve his goals.

At the same time, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that Russia could launch a new attack in a few years. He believes that Lithuania has 4 to 5 years to prepare.

At the same time, The Wall Street Journal wrote that US President Donald Trump and world leaders are concerned about Russia's war against Ukraine. At the same time, Russia is expanding military bases and preparing to deploy additional troops to European borders.