Kim Jong Un's 'expeditionary corps': How DPRK troops could reshape the war in Ukraine

Military aid for Russia from North Korea continues to expand and is not limited to the supply of weapons, including ballistic missiles and ammunition.

According to The Times, citing data from Western intelligence, Pyongyang supplies Moscow with about half of the artillery shells it uses in the war against Ukraine. The publication reports that these deliveries amount to 3 million shells annually. In addition, the Kremlin has also gained the opportunity to involve North Korean military personnel.

Initially, the use of North Korean citizens by the Russians was associated with assisting the occupiers in operating North Korean ballistic missiles. Still, now there are claims of the possible involvement of North Korean soldiers in combat operations. South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong Hwan made a corresponding statement.

Furthermore, it was reported that a small number of North Korean engineers were sent to Donbas to service artillery shells. Later, RBC-Ukraine learned from its own sources that six North Korean officers were eliminated near Donetsk as a result of a missile strike.

Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Pyongyang supplies not only weapons but also personnel to the Russian army. He says this means "the de facto involvement of North Korea in the war against Ukraine."

Western media sources indicate that several thousand North Korean soldiers are currently undergoing training in Russia, and they may be deployed to the Russian-Ukrainian front by the end of the year. The Kremlin, however, continues to deny these claims.

Moreover, a "special Buryat battalion" is reportedly being formed within the Russian occupying army, based on the 11th separate airborne assault brigade, which consists of approximately 3,000 personnel. Sources in Ukraine's Defense Forces told RBC-Ukraine that it is allegedly staffed with military personnel from North Korea. The battalion will be deployed for combat operations near Sudzha and Kursk.

How North Korean troops could be involved in the war against Ukraine

There are various scenarios regarding how Russia might engage North Korean regular army troops in the war against Ukraine and in what numbers. However, according to Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies, the initial phase may involve a small contingent that will be stationed in Russia and the occupied territories for "experience exchange."

"It is obvious that they want to learn about the changes and transformations in warfare, especially regarding the use of drones and countermeasures against them. This is highly relevant for them. Pyongyang is currently accusing Seoul of launching (spy drones - ed.) into North Korean territory. So, the first reason is that they want to gain experience," Musiienko told RBC-Ukraine.

He said there will be training, particularly for North Korean officers. He does not rule out the possibility of an expeditionary corps of North Korean troops being deployed to the combat zone to carry out certain artillery tasks.

"I think the involvement could initially be limited to a few thousand (troops - ed.). But that doesn't change the situation. Even a few hundred troops is participation in the war. Any shot fired by a North Korean soldier at the positions of Ukrainian forces is direct involvement, which is essentially a declaration of war on Ukraine. Even their presence in the occupied territories counts," Musiienko explained.

The most interesting question, according to the expert, is whether the North Koreans will engage in so-called "meat assaults." It's one thing when North Korean representatives perform specific functions, such as special forces or infantry in anti-colonial wars in Africa or as pilots on Soviet planes supplied to Egypt.

"It's another matter to engage in 'meat assaults.' This will be the moment of truth. The motivational package is very important here. What is this war for? For the 'noble ideas' of Kim Jong Un? For the bright ideas of anti-imperialism? For a better future for the planet? What is it for? What ideological foundation will there be? For countries like North Korea, this is significant," Musiienko noted.

The expert does not rule out that the Kremlin might offer financial incentives, which would also be important. However, he says there is no guarantee that the North Koreans won’t take the money and escape somewhere. For example, through Belarus and then as refugees to Poland.

Notably, Suspilne reported yesterday that 18 North Korean soldiers who had been involved with the Russian army fled from their positions on the border between Ukraine and Russia's Bryansk and Kursk regions.

How should Ukraine and the West react

"But there is also a political aspect, which is very important. It is one thing when it's a Russian-Ukrainian war regarding troop deployment. And yes, Russia constantly recruits mercenaries worldwide. But that is not state support, and it's the involvement of individuals. Or we have volunteers, the foreign legion, who sign contracts with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But this does not mean these states are participating," Musiienko explains.

The expert emphasizes that North Korean troops' direct involvement in this war significantly raises the level of tension and conflict, requiring a different type of response from the West. He also mentioned how Kyiv could react in this situation.

"The first way to respond is already present. This is what the President of Ukraine called for when he urged the West to respond and grant Ukraine the right to strike deep into Russian territory as a symbolic gesture that the West is also ready to cross certain lines," Musiienko cites as an example.

Secondly, he refers to the ideas voiced earlier this year by French President Emmanuel Macron, suggesting that the West could consider sending its troops to Ukrainian territory.

"I believe this is the right move. Moreover, I am a consistent supporter of the idea that, in the future, the guarantee of security for Ukraine should be the presence of foreign troops on our territory. An American military base exists in the center of Seoul. And because of this, South Korea got the chance for a better existence and economic breakthroughs," the expert concluded.

Sources: materials from The Times, statements by South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong Hwan and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, data from RBC-Ukraine's sources, and an exclusive comment from Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies.