It's necessary to wait out elections: Experts on Ukraine-Poland grain dispute

"Adamski explained that Polish farmers, unlike their Ukrainian counterparts, have small-scale farms and are highly sensitive to changes in their income, as explained by Adamski. Therefore, they demand government action to prevent Ukrainian products from entering the local market in large quantities.

What served as a catalyst for the conflict

It is evident that Poland, like any other country, defends its own national interests. However, as Fesenko believes, the catalyst for the conflict with Ukraine has been the parliamentary elections in Poland, scheduled for mid-October this year.

"I think the emotions wouldn't have been as sharp if it weren't for the Polish elections. Representatives of the ruling Polish party are now starting to use this issue because farmers are their target group," Fesenko suggested. Therefore, any actions by the Polish government that may not be well-received by local farmers can be expected to continue at least until the end of the election race.

Therefore, any actions by the Polish government that may not be well-received by local farmers can be expected to continue at least until the end of the election race.

The Polish statements are becoming sharper

The closer the elections get, the sharper the statements from the Polish side become. For instance, recently, the Polish Prime Minister's Office suggested reducing financial support for Ukrainian refugees, and Poland's Minister for EU Affairs, Szymon Szynkowski vel Sęk, warned that the grain scandal could reduce support for Ukraine among Poles.

Furthermore, the Minister of Agriculture, Telus, did not rule out that Poland might block Ukraine's accession to the EU if the grain issue was not resolved by then.

"If we don't create the instruments today, Poland definitely won't agree to Ukraine's EU accession," he said this week.

Will Poland really refuse to help Ukraine

It's unlikely that Poland will withdraw support for Ukraine due to the grain situation, as Ukraine's victory in the war is in Warsaw's interests, and the support for Ukrainian refugees is regulated at the EU level.

However, there could indeed be problems with Ukraine's Eurointegration. As Adamski explains, EU expansion is a political process that requires the agreement of all EU member states. Therefore, before Warsaw gives the green light, they will want to settle the agricultural issue.

"In a situation where Poland is Ukraine's largest Western neighbor and also an agrarian country, Ukraine will have to negotiate with Poland on the terms and conditions of integration to ensure that the Polish agricultural market is not destroyed. It will be a complex process, but I am confident that with goodwill, it can be resolved," the Polish expert said.

Adamski also believes that after the Polish elections, it will be easier to discuss the grain issue, as Polish politicians will have more room for maneuver, and their actions will no longer influence the election results. However, as the Polish expert points out, negotiations will still be more challenging than they could have been a few months ago, as the sharp rhetoric has affected trust between the countries.

You can find more details on why relations between Kyiv and Warsaw have become strained in RBC-Ukraine article.

Conflict between Poland and Ukraine

On September 15, Poland decided to extend the ban on grain imports from Ukraine, despite the European Commission's decision to lift such measures. In response, Kyiv initiated legal action at the World Trade Organization.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hinted that Poland was undermining solidarity with political theater. Warsaw then summoned the Ukrainian ambassador to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

However, today the two countries have agreed to find a solution regarding the export of Ukrainian agricultural products.