ISW: Russia simulates provocations against NATO during Zapad 2025 exercises
Photo: Russians practiced launching Iskander-M missiles during the exercises (Getty Images)
During the Zapad 2025 military exercises, Russia is rehearsing potential future provocations against neighboring NATO countries, including not only hybrid but also military ones, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“Russia is using the Zapad-2025 exercises to practice potential future kinetic provocations against neighboring NATO states,” the report says.
Analysts note that Russia and Belarus practiced defending against nuclear threats and their use in the waters of the Barents Sea, which borders NATO member Norway.
Russian troops also practiced using missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons (Iskander-M) during the exercises. These maneuvers took place in the Kaliningrad region, which borders NATO member states Lithuania and Poland.
The ISW noted that the Russians have already used the Kaliningrad region as a launch pad for jamming and spoofing GPS signals across Europe.
Russia also built a large-scale radio intelligence facility in the Kaliningrad region, located 25 kilometers from the Polish border.
ISW analysts argue that the Zapad 2025 exercises provide both Russia and Belarus with a platform to improve their methods of force escalation, which is a form of pressure on NATO.
Experts also recall the sharp statements made by Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, regarding NATO.
For example, his statements on September 15 that the creation of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which would allow NATO countries to shoot down Russian targets, would mean war between NATO and Russia.
The Office of the President of Ukraine responded to Medvedev's threats and stated that Russia should expect a strike on its pain points.
Russian-Belarusian exercises Zapad 2025
Russia and Belarus are conducting joint military exercises called Zapad 2025. The active part of these military exercises lasts from September 12 to 16. The main actions take place on Belarusian territory, partly in Russia.
The officially stated goal is to test the combat readiness and cooperation of the two countries in security protection and repelling aggression.
However, while the exercises were initially justified as planned and regular maneuvers, the rhetoric has since changed, and they are now explained as a response to the “militarization” of Poland and the Baltic states.
Russia expanded the Zapad 2025 exercises to the Kaliningrad region, which borders Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east.
