ISW reveals why Putin claims Ukraine’s front line collapses soon
Vladimir Putinm Kremlin leader (photo: Getty Images)
In recent days, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin and Russian state media have been aggressively pushing a false narrative claiming that Ukraine’s front line is on the verge of inevitable collapse. But that is simply not true, according to a new assessment from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts say Russia is deliberately spreading this message. The likely goal is to pressure the West and Ukraine into accepting Kremlin demands that Moscow cannot achieve on the battlefield.
To show why Russia’s claims about a front-line collapse are untrue, ISW experts point to several key factors.
One Kremlin-linked war correspondent noted that after Putin’s conference on November 27, Russian state media have been widely spreading false claims about a collapse of the front line. The stated reasons include:
- Allegations that Ukrainian forces are mass deserting and surrendering, leaving large areas undefended;
- Claims that Russian troops will soon advance on Kyiv;
- Assertions that the Russian army has supposedly defeated the Ukrainian forces and only needs to finish them off.
The same war correspondent accused Russian media of falsifying some territorial gains and exaggerating already inflated statements made by Putin. Additionally, Russia is reportedly using AI to create fake videos depicting Ukrainian soldiers surrendering.
“Russian state media is also trying to reinforce the Kremlin’s efforts to create a perception that Russian forces will inevitably collapse sectors of the frontline in Ukraine, destroy Ukraine’s most combat-capable elite units, and degrade the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian military writ large — and that Ukraine and the West should therefore immediately concede to Russia’s demands before the situation worsens for Ukraine,” ISW added.
A Russian blogger confirmed that the front line is not actually collapsing, and that Russia is far from victory.
He also noted that while the Russian army maintains some initiative, it comes at the cost of heavy personnel and material losses. Currently, both sides are engaged in positional warfare along the entire front line. Ukrainian forces are also mounting counterattacks, as confirmed by all available open-source evidence from the battlefield.
According to the war correspondent, Ukrainian forces continue to defend positions in the Kharkiv region, including attempts to counterattack in eastern Vovchansk and resist in the directions of Kupiansk and Borove.
The war correspondent’s assessment sharply contradicts Putin’s statement on November 27 that Russian forces had completed the capture of Kupiansk, taken most of Vovchansk, and that Ukrainian forces were allegedly unable to defend against Russia’s attack in the Oskil River area.
The Russian blogger also refuted Putin’s claim that Russia is actively conducting multiple encirclement operations, forcing Ukrainian forces to abandon entire defensive lines.
The war correspondent said that while Ukrainian troops are withdrawing from certain tactical positions, these cases do not mean that the Ukrainian army is abandoning its defensive lines entirely.
He explained that Ukraine’s military command sometimes pulls back forces to reinforce other parts of the front or, in other cases, to avoid encirclement - a tactic also used by the Russian army.
Analysts’ conclusion
ISW continues to assess that while the situation on some sections of the front is serious - particularly in the Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole directions - Putin’s claims and those of Russian state media are exaggerated and do not reflect the reality they purport to represent.
“It is notable that the Kremlin’s misrepresentation of the situation on the ground was so far from reality that a prominent pro-war Russian blogger felt compelled to issue his own corrective statement,” the analysts concluded.
