ISW reports how many Russians went AWOL during large-scale war with Ukraine
Russia has lost a significant number of personnel in the war in Ukraine (Illustrative photo: Getty Images)
Nearly three years into the full-scale war, more than 50,000 Russian military personnel have deserted their units and are AWOL. The highest number of cases has been recorded in the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Ukrainian hackers gained access to an internal presentation from the Russian Ministry of Defense, which lists the number of criminal cases initiated by the Russian authorities against military personnel who are AWOL, as of December 15, 2024.
The Ukrainian OSINT community noted that the data presented in the presentation includes cases where Russian commanders classified soldiers missing in action during assaults as AWOL.
The Ukrainian open-source intelligence organization Frontelligence Insight used the data from the presentation and calculated the scale of this phenomenon.
Yes, the total number of documented desertion cases from February 2022 to mid-December 2024 is 50,554. Of these:
- In the Southern Military District: 22,577;
- In the Central Military District: 13,769;
- In the Moscow Military District: 7,178;
- In the Leningrad Military District: 3,052;
- In the Eastern Military District: 3,378.
The document also notes that 58.8% of desertion cases occurred among military personnel of the 51st Combined Arms Army (formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC]) and the 3rd CAA (formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic [LNR] AC).
It is mentioned that most desertions occurred between 2023 and 2024, while relatively fewer took place in 2022.
Russian army losses and plans
The Russian army continues to suffer colossal losses in the full-scale war with Ukraine.
In the past day alone, the Russians lost over 1,250 soldiers on the front line, along with significant amounts of military equipment.
The Russian registry lists over three thousand bodies of soldiers who went missing and could not be identified. In recent months, the Russians have transferred twice as many bodies of the deceased as they did during the entire period of the full-scale war.
French President Emmanuel Macron stated that by 2030, Russia plans to mobilize three million soldiers and replenish its army with thousands of tanks.
