ISW explains what Russia wants to achieve with new Oreshnik attack on Ukraine
Russia is trying to block Western military aid to Ukraine (Illustrative photo: Russian media)
Russia may fire a second medium-range ballistic missile at Ukraine. In this way, the Kremlin is trying to dissuade the West from providing further military assistance to Kyiv, reports the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to the Institute, the Oreshnik strikes on Ukraine and the rhetoric surrounding Russia's use of the missile is part of a broader Russian campaign of reflexive control aimed at forcing deterrence on the West and Ukraine.
Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov previously undermined this ongoing Kremlin information operation. He stated that the launch of the Lishchyna missile was planned long before the US decision to allow Ukraine to hit military targets in Russia with US missiles.
Russian officials are likely to amplify similar narratives about the Oreshnik if Russian forces use the missile again.
Oreshnik ballistic missile strike on Ukraine
On November 21, Russian forces fired an Oreshnik missile at the city of Dnipro for the first time in the full-scale war. The missile elements hit the industrial shops of the Pivdenmash plant.
President Vladimir Putin said that this was Russia's test of this type of weapon.
However, Viktor Yahun, former deputy head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) is convinced that Russia used a dummy missile.
Recently, the Pentagon has not ruled out that Russia will attack Ukraine again with Oreshnik soon, but the exact date of the launch is unknown.
