ISW explains risks of Putin's alternative peace deal with Ukraine

The report reminds that the Ukrainian-American ceasefire agreement stipulates a 30-day cessation of hostilities along the entire front line, a moratorium on long-range missile strikes and drone attacks, as well as halting operations in the Black Sea. The project allows both Russia and Ukraine to continue the ceasefire regime, exchange intelligence information, and continue receiving American and other military aid to Ukraine.

Thus, this proposal was aimed at allowing both Russia and Ukraine to demonstrate their willingness for peace, while separating the temporary ceasefire from the future negotiations on ending the war.

Putin's cunning tactics

In contrast, the ceasefire agreement proposed by Putin would provide Russia with significantly disproportionate advantages and create conditions for the resumption of hostilities under terms highly favorable to the Kremlin.

The ISW suggests that Putin's draft agreement would likely require the United States and other partners to suspend military aid to Ukraine, while also demanding that Ukraine halt mobilization and the training of its personnel.

However, if such an agreement were to continue for an extended period, it would create obstacles to the recovery, training, and equipping of Ukrainian forces, leading to Ukraine's disarmament. Additionally, it could grant Russia and its allies substantial leverage over the situation.

At the same time, analysts pointed out that Putin did not mention halting Russia's conscription for military service, the production of military equipment, or the receipt of military aid from its allies.

"Russia's ability to continue these measures during a potential ceasefire while preventing Ukraine from doing so would allow Russia to resume offensive operations with better manned and equipped units at a time of its choosing. Such demands would seem a clear indication that Putin is not, in fact, committed to making peace," the ISW concluded.

Lasting peace is impossible

The report also highlights that Putin’s attempts to negotiate a ceasefire agreement on terms disproportionately beneficial to Russia ignore the stated intention of US President Donald Trump that a ceasefire would create conditions for negotiations toward a more comprehensive peace agreement in the future.

"An agreement along the lines Putin appears to be offering would undermine the Trump administration's stated objective of bringing about a sustainable peace in Ukraine, would reinforce Putin's belief that Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine, and would incentivize Putin to resume military operations against Ukraine rather than making any concessions in formal negotiations to end the war," the report notes.

The ISW also believes that Putin is holding the ceasefire proposal hostage, attempting to secure preemptive concessions before official peace negotiations begin.

Putin has refused to accept the American-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal on its terms and instead demands additional conditions that directly support Russia’s military objectives.

"ISW continues to assess that Putin is disinterested in good faith peace negotiations to end the war. Putin remains committed to accomplishing his long-term goals of installing a pro-Russian puppet regime in Ukraine, undermining Ukraine's ability to defend itself against future Russian aggression and preventing Ukraine's accession to NATO," the report states.

The Institute for the Study of War also believes that Putin’s rejection of the ceasefire proposal highlights his dedication to achieving his goals in Ukraine, including its demilitarization.

This also indicates the Russian leader's disinterest in any pause in hostilities that would not lead to Ukraine's capitulation or, at the very least, fail to create conditions for a successful resumption of Russian offensive operations in the future.

Negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine

During the negotiations between Ukrainian and US delegations in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the parties agreed on a draft agreement for a 30-day ceasefire along the entire front line.

On Thursday, an American delegation arrived in Moscow to discuss this matter with the Kremlin.

Following the talks, Putin generally supported the idea of a 30-day truce. However, he stated that for such an agreement to be approved, the Ukrainian Armed Forces must either surrender or perish in the Kursk region. The dictator hinted that, during the ceasefire, Ukraine should halt its mobilization, military training, and the equipping of its army with new technology.

Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington would know what the obstacle to peace in Ukraine is if Putin rejects the ceasefire proposal.

In response, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is convinced that Putin's statements signal preparations for rejecting the ceasefire proposed by the US.

Meanwhile, according to NBC News, at Putin’s request, Trump removed his special representative, Keith Kellogg, from participation in negotiations regarding the cessation of the war.