ISW explains risks of possible cessation of US aid to Ukraine

Analysts at the agency are convinced that a reduction in aid to Ukraine could lead to a decrease in US influence worldwide and embolden its adversaries.

Russia, Iran, North Korea, and the People's Republic of China (PRC) have formed a bloc aimed at overcoming the US and its allies globally, currently testing the limits of Washington's commitment to its European, Middle Eastern, and Asia-Pacific allies.

The ISW noted that in late February 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping, during a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, declared that China and Russia are true friends, who cannot be separated, and no third party will have influence over them.

The Institute also reminded that since the beginning of the full-scale war, Russia has signed bilateral agreements for a comprehensive strategic partnership with China in May 2023, North Korea in October 2024, and Iran in January 2025.

Analysts at the agency noted that Putin continues to rely on Iranian drones and North Korean ballistic missiles and troops in his war against Ukraine. US assistance serves as a demonstration of commitment to protecting democracies from current and future aggression worldwide, including, but not limited to, Ukraine, Israel, South Korea, and Taiwan.

In light of the situation, the Institute is convinced that the Russia-led bloc is likely to view the abandonment of Ukraine as an indication that the US will also abandon its other allies, and will seek to test the limits of American commitments worldwide.

"The Russia-led bloc is searching for easily exploitable divisions between the United States and its allies to isolate and weaken the United States on the global stage, allowing adversaries to rise up and dictate where and how the United States can engage the world. Cutting US aid to Ukraine plays directly into these adversaries' goals and is a step toward curtailing US influence in the world," the ISW stated.

Key findings

The Institute for the Study of War also outlined key conclusions based on the current political and military situation. The agency notes that:

• A reduction in the current flow of aid to Ukraine would directly undermine the goal of achieving lasting peace, as stated by President Donald Trump.

• Ukrainian forces, which have received substantial military aid from the US, are inflicting unbearable losses on Russian troops, keeping them confined to minimal territorial gains. This situation, combined with the serious challenges Russia will face in 2025, provides the US with significant leverage in peace negotiations. Suspending current US military aid to Ukraine would allow President Vladimir Putin to continue raising his demands and reinforce his belief that he can achieve complete victory through war.

• The main obstacle to a lasting peace agreement regarding Ukraine remains Putin, not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

• The Kremlin has launched another information campaign aimed at preventing additional military aid from the US and Europe to Ukraine, claiming that Russia has won the war in Ukraine.

High-profile visit of Zelenskyy to the US

On Friday, February 28, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Washington to sign a mineral resources agreement between Ukraine and the US.

However, during a meeting in the White House Oval Office, in the presence of the media, an emotional verbal confrontation occurred between Zelenskyy, US President Donald Trump, and Vice President JD Vance.

The American leaders accused Zelenskyy of being unprepared for peace talks and ending the war, demanding that he thank the US for three years of financial and military support for Ukraine.

Following the heated discussions, Zelenskyy left the White House early, and the mineral resources agreement was not signed.

On March 1, American media reported that the White House is considering the possibility of completely halting US military aid to Ukraine.

The Trump administration may suspend all forms of funding for military needs, intelligence-sharing, and training for Ukrainian troops and pilots, as well as the activities of the international aid management center at the US base in Ramstein, Germany.

However, CNN reassures that the risks of a total cessation of US aid to Ukraine are nonexistent.