ISW analyzes Putin’s latest nuclear threats
Photo: Russian dictator Vladimir Putin (getty images)
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has exploited ongoing discussions about security guarantees within Ukraine's Victory Plan to carry out routine nuclear posturing as part of an information campaign. The goal is to discredit Ukraine in the eyes of its Western partners and hinder assistance to the country, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
In response to questions from BRICS member state media about security guarantees for Ukraine, Putin stated that Russia would deliver an "appropriate reaction" if Ukraine takes steps toward developing nuclear weapons — something he called a "dangerous provocation."
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that Putin frequently resorts to nuclear saber-rattling to pressure the West into self-restraint, especially during critical moments in Western political debates about supporting Ukraine.
"ISW continues to assess that Russia's nuclear saber-ratting is not indicative of Russia's willingness to use nuclear weapons and that Russia is very unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere," the ISW report states.
The report also references the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, under which Russia committed to "respect" Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to "refrain from the threat or use force," including in Crimea and Donbas, in exchange for Ukraine transferring Soviet nuclear weapons to Russia.
Ukraine and nuclear weapons
Recently, the German newspaper Bild, citing an unnamed Ukrainian official, reported that Ukraine might consider developing nuclear weapons if Russia launches a new invasion and Ukraine is still not a NATO member by then.
However, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that the creation of nuclear weapons is not under discussion.
Ukraine officially denied any plans to develop nuclear weapons, reaffirming its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
