Iran's development of nuclear weapons consequences: Expert's view
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If Iran obtains nuclear weapons, it could lead to the collapse of the non-proliferation regime, as well as the desire for a nuclear umbrella in other Middle Eastern countries, says John Erath, Senior Policy Director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation (USA), in the RBC-Ukraine article "On the brink of abyss: Will Iran build nuclear weapons and how to halt it”.
“Iran does not have nuclear weapons yet, and it is difficult to speculate on what might happen should it take such a step. At a minimum, many countries would reexamine their security should a state sponsor of terrorism start to field weapons of mass destruction,” Erath says.
Meanwhile, Israel neither confirms nor denies that it has nuclear weapons. At the same time, Iran's acquisition of a nuclear umbrella will create new challenges for Tel Aviv, which may eventually force it to reconsider its position.
Saudi Arabia, which is a longtime antagonist of Iran, has also declared nuclear ambitions. This could create a situation similar to the Cold War nuclear deterrence between the US and the USSR. Similarly, nuclear weapons have somewhat reduced tensions between India and Pakistan or around North Korea in the twenty-first century.
“Iran must weigh the costs (greater international isolation, further sanctions, a possible regional arms race) against what illusory security it would gain from such weapons. Iran's collaborators, including Russia and China, must signal that nuclear weapons are unacceptable,” the expert adds.
Iran's nuclear ambitions
In 2015, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for a reduction in sanctions against it. However, already in 2018, the then-President of the United States of America Donald Trump reneged on the deal.
The issue of Iran's development of nuclear weapons is a concern for the West. In November 2023, the media reported that Iran allegedly had sufficient uranium reserves to make three nuclear bombs.
Meanwhile, Valeriia Gergiieva, an analyst at the Odesa Center for Nonproliferation and Disarmament, said that it would signal that Iran is on the home stretch to build nuclear weapons.
