Iran prepares for war with Israel but tries to avoid it - NYT
Iran is not eager to aggressively start a war with Israel (Illustrative photo: Getty Images)
The Iranian government has ordered its armed forces to be prepared for war with Israel. At the same time, Tehran is attempting to avoid direct confrontation, even at the cost of dismantling affiliated groups in Lebanon and Gaza, reports The New York Times.
Four Iranian officials told The New York Times that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered the country's armed forces to develop multiple contingency plans in response to expected Israeli military retaliation.
They warned that Iran would strike back if its territory suffered significant damage or casualties. However, Tehran might refrain from responding if Israel only targets a limited number of military sites and weapons depots.
Officials, two of whom are members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stressed that Iran would certainly retaliate if Israel hits oil facilities, nuclear installations, or high-ranking officials. They did not rule out the possibility of an attack using up to 1,000 ballistic missiles or disrupting energy supplies in the region.
According to the report, in recent weeks, Iran has been working to strengthen alliances with regional Arab countries but has also warned them that any assistance to Israel during an attack would make them a legitimate target.
Nasser Imani, a political analyst close to the government, told the NYT that Iran does not seek a major war with Israel, saying, “We don’t see any benefits in the region exploding.”
He added that, at this stage, Iran does not view war with Israel as a threat to its existence. However, he believes that a prolonged conflict would be devastating and could derail the new government’s efforts to negotiate with the West in hopes of lifting harsh US sanctions and improving the dire state of Iran’s economy.
Two IRGC members told The New York Times that senior generals who had commanded battalions in Iraq and Syria and are now fighting Islamic State militants have been deployed to all border provinces. There is concern that armed ethnic separatist groups and militants, such as ISIS, could launch attacks and provoke unrest if Iran enters the war.
Threat of a large-scale war in the Middle East
In recent months, tensions in the Middle East have significantly escalated.
Since the Hamas terrorist invasion of Israel from Gaza in October 2023, Iranian-backed Islamic militant groups - Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis - have launched regular attacks on Israeli territory.
By early autumn, the intensity of the strikes and confrontations reached their peak. On October 1, the Israeli army initiated a ground operation in southern Lebanon to push militants away from the northern border and stop rocket and drone attacks.
Additionally, in recent months, Israeli intelligence has eliminated several leaders of Islamic militant groups.
At the end of July, in Tehran, IRGC leader Ismail Ghania was assassinated. The residence where he was staying was rigged with explosives and detonated by Iranian security forces at the request of Mossad.
On September 27, Israel carried out a strike in Beirut, killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
In response, on the night of October 2, Iran launched its most extensive attack, firing around 180 missiles at Israel.
Israel has vowed to retaliate and has already scheduled the timing of its counterstrike. A reprisal may occur as soon as before the US presidential election on November 5.
