Iran doesn’t want large-scale war with Israel: Expert assesses what Tehran’s revenge might be
Photo: Iranian military (flickr.com)
Iran doesn't want a large-scale war with Israel. That's why Tehran has not yet responded to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, but revenge is inevitable, states Israeli military analyst David Sharp in a comment to RBC-Ukraine's YouTube channel.
According to him, Iran's revenge was expected to come in the form of a missile strike on Israel relatively soon, but "Iran has apparently reconsidered." This is partly due to threats from Israel, the US, and the World Bank.
"Iran doesn’t want a large-scale war with Israel. They fear it, and it seems they have decided to seek revenge in another way. But there is a dilemma—Iranians promised revenge. If they don’t follow through, they will 'lose face.' They made promises at all levels," Sharp noted.
He emphasized that 'losing face' in the Middle East is seen as a sign of weakness, both to friends and enemies.
"There is a price to pay for that. The revenge must appear to be Iran’s own. Otherwise, it looks like Iran did not keep its promise. Iran faces an interesting dilemma—striking with missiles, as they did in April, is dangerous, and moreover, if they haven’t done it weeks ago, it's unclear why delay. If missiles are the option, they could strike right away," the expert added.
In his view, Iran likely decided to pursue a different approach, potentially resorting to classic terrorism.
"They might attack an Israeli target abroad, try to kill a high-ranking Israeli, or someone notable abroad. That’s terrorism. Secondly, it’s unclear how to take responsibility for an attack abroad. I would say they will do something. It's also impossible to rule out that they might carry out a missile strike," Sharp noted.
Conflict between Iran and Israel
On July 31, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was eliminated in Tehran. He had arrived in Iran to attend the inauguration of Iran's President Masoud Pazeshkian.
The Iranian authorities immediately blamed Israeli intelligence services for the incident. According to Iranian officials, the guesthouse where Haniyeh was staying was allegedly hit by a missile strike.
However, Western media sources, citing their own sources, reported that Haniyeh was killed by a bomb planted in the guesthouse several months before the incident.
For more details on the elimination of the Hamas leader, see RBC-Ukraine's material.
