If Putin dies tomorrow, there will be clashes between elites for power, says Russian oppositionist
Photo: After Putin's death, Russia will face a clan fight (Getty Images)
If Putin dies tomorrow, Russia will face a conflict between the ruling elites. With a 70% probability, this clash will result in one of the existing clans seizing power, which will destroy some other clans and reach an agreement with others, Ivan Preobrazhensky, a Russian political analyst in the opposition, says in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
According to him, the Russian regime, which has essentially become totalitarian, will revert to authoritarianism. The new regime will try to restore relations with the West, without abandoning any conquests made under Putin, but they might try to reset the situation and declare that it was all under Putin, and now it's time to start negotiating.
"They won’t pay any reparations, they might symbolically hand over one oligarch to a Western court, as Serbia did after Milošević. This would follow a scenario similar to Serbia's, but without a Zoran Djindjic, who was assassinated shortly afterward. So, no, democracy won't come even for a brief time. It will just be an authoritarian landscape, very similar to many Central Asian countries," Preobrazhensky said.
This is because, for Russia to fully change its developmental course, something more significant than Putin's death is required. One such upheaval would be a military defeat. If this doesn't happen, after the dictator's death, the factions will start their struggle.
"There is a relatively large faction centered around Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin. He is often painted as a liberal in the West, but in reality, he's part of the Kogalym criminal clan. It’s just St. Petersburg gangsters versus Kogalym gangsters. There are at least two large factions from Putin's inner circle. These are the so-called Kovalchuks, working alongside First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko - who oversees the occupied territories and Rosatom and is very influential.
The second faction is the Russian military-industrial complex, including Sergei Chemezov and First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov. There are many people around them. Most likely, new Putin aide Alexei Dyumin, a former governor and former military special forces operative, will join them. He likely personally led the operation to evacuate Yanukovych from Ukraine.
Then there's the so-called security faction, like Ramzan Kadyrov. Fully loyal to Putin today is Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard and former head of Putin's security, who has very good relations with Kadyrov. But if they don't align with major economic clans, they won’t be able to seize power," Preobrazhensky said.
The war will likely end or significantly stall. This is because Putin views this war ideologically and attaches a personal meaning to it. New leaders will want to build relations with the West, as they understand that a war economy cannot exist forever. The war must end to do this. However, they are unlikely to return any of the occupied territories.
The head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, said that he was aware of assassination attempts on Vladimir Putin, but they were unsuccessful so far.
