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If Avdiivka falls, Russians can't advance quickly further - ISW

If Avdiivka falls, Russians can't advance quickly further - ISW In case of the capture of Avdiivka, the Russians will be exhausted and will not be able to advance further soon (photo: Getty Images)

In the event of a potential capture of Avdiivka, the Russians will not be able to quickly advance and occupy large settlements west of the city. The aggressor's forces have suffered very heavy losses, and to capture new territories, they need a long period of recovery and rest, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The document reminded that the Russians began a local offensive operation to capture Avdiivka in October 2023 and only recently began to tactically advance through the settlement after several months of infantry assaults and waves of mass mechanized attacks with significant losses of equipment and personnel.

ISW notes that the Ukrainian Defense Forces have built strong defensive fortifications near the settlements around Avdiivka, which Russian forces are also trying to capture, particularly to the west and north of the city.

The nearest relatively large settlements in this area are located at least 30 kilometers west of Avdiivka. Russian forces do not demonstrate readiness to carry out a rapid mechanized advance and occupy these towns and villages in the near or even medium term.

"Russian forces have lost a large amount of manpower and equipment in the capture of Avdiivka, so they will likely need a long period of consolidation, recovery, and rest before they attempt further coordinated offensive actions in this area," the report said.

Given these factors, ISW suggests that in the event of the capture of Avdiivka, Russian forces are unlikely to be able to advance quickly. Instead, the potential capture of the city will at most create conditions for further limited tactical advantages.

Fighting for Avdiivka

Russian forces have been assaulting Avdiivka in the Donetsk region for several months. They are trying to surround the city to later take control of it. The defense forces are holding their ground and inflicting significant losses on the occupiers.

As of today, the fighting is taking place within the city limits. Recently, the 3rd Separate Storm Brigade was sent to reinforce the defense of Avdiivka. The Ukrainian military also ensured alternative logistic supply routes in case the enemy cut off the main logistic route.

Commander of the Tavria Operational Strategic Group Oleksandr Tarnavskyi noted that as of the evening of February 15, the situation in Avdiivka is difficult but under control. Fierce battles are ongoing in the city, with planned reinforcement of units and maneuvering of the Ukrainian forces in threatening directions taking place.

For more details on the situation around the city, read the article by RBC-Ukraine.