How many people actually live in Ukraine during war: Demographic estimate
Illustrative photo: Population of Ukraine during the war (Vitalii Nosach/RBC-Ukraine)
Excluding the occupied territories, where access is restricted due to the war, approximately 28 to 30 million people may currently reside in Ukraine, states Ukrainian demographer Oleksandr Hladun, Doctor of Economic Sciences, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
Shortly after the onset of the full-scale invasion, at the beginning of 2023, the Institute of Demography conducted an assessment of Ukraine's population size.
"At the beginning of 2023, we carried out our assessment of the population of Ukraine as of January 1, 2022. Even before the full-scale war, there were certain accounting issues; we hadn't conducted a census in a long time. Therefore, we needed to reevaluate the data on how many people were in Ukraine," explains Ukrainian demographer Oleksandr Hladun.
The researchers analyzed the population within the borders of 1991, counting how many people lived in Ukraine, including the occupied territories and Crimea.
According to demographers' estimates, there were slightly more than 42 million people in Ukraine at that time.
"As of January 1 this year, we estimate the population of Ukraine at slightly more than 35 million, within the 1991 borders. If we exclude the occupied territories, it could be about 28 to 30 million people," adds Hladun.
He states that the real situation in the uncontrolled territories is currently unknown, and thus the estimates can vary significantly. However, the trend indicates that the population has significantly decreased. Additionally, standard demographic methods are not functioning during the war.
"There are fewer people residing within the state. But how do we account for our refugees, who have fled abroad in the millions? Methodologically, if a person is absent from the country for more than a year, they can be removed from the records. But we understand that this is a non-standard situation. People are there, but they might return. Therefore, we need to talk about the population residing within Ukraine's territory on specific dates and borders," emphasizes Hladun.
Earlier, the UN released data indicating that the population of Ukraine had decreased by 10 million people due to the war.
The IMF also assessed Ukraine's population and downgraded its forecast for 2029.
