How long will it take Russia to capture Ukraine? ISW's shocking timeline
Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
Russia continues to suffer heavy losses on the front as it tries to gain minimal territorial advantages in Ukraine. At the current pace, it would take Russia decades to fully occupy the country, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts noted that Russia incurs massive losses on the front for minimal territorial gains.
"It would take Russia about 89 years to seize all of Ukraine at its current relatively accelerated rate of advance, which has fluctuated throughout the war and is unlikely to remain constant," experts quoted from an article in The Economist.
Meanwhile, at the current pace, Russian forces would need until February 2028 to capture the remaining territories in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, which Russia has annexed into its constitution.
"The Russian rate of advance of 15.8 square kilometers per day is unusually high compared to the Russian rate of advance in Winter 2024-2025 and Spring 2025, and is unlikely to remain constant," specialists noted.
Additionally, analysts estimate that since May 1 of this year, Russia may have lost about 31,000 soldiers killed or wounded. Since July 2024, Russian troops have gained roughly 0.038 square kilometers of territory per killed soldier.
"Russian forces will likely continue to burn through personnel in ongoing summer offensive operations that aim to seize the remainder of Luhansk and Donetsk regions and advance into Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions," the ISW concluded.
It should be noted that since the full-scale invasion began, Russian forces have lost over one million soldiers. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine updated the data on Russian military losses earlier today.
Meanwhile, military expert and retired Major of the National Guard of Ukraine, veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Oleksii Hetman, recently stated that Russia is trying to extract the maximum from its offensive in 2025. He believes the Russian army could stop its advance altogether next year.
