Hezbollah plans massive disarmament: Power shift underway

The Lebanese Islamist group Hezbollah has launched a large-scale internal strategic review following the devastating war with Israel. According to three sources familiar with the discussions, one of the possible changes being considered is a reduction in the organization’s role as an armed movement without full disarmament.

These internal consultations, which are still ongoing and have not been previously reported, indicate significant pressure on the Iran-backed group since the ceasefire was reached at the end of November.

Israeli forces continue to strike areas controlled by Hezbollah, accusing the group of violating the ceasefire agreement - allegations that Hezbollah denies.

At the same time, the group is facing severe financial difficulties, US demands for disarmament, and a decline in political influence following the formation of a new cabinet in February, backed by Washington.

Strength turned into weakness

The situation is complicated by a shift in the regional balance of power, especially after Israel eliminated Hezbollah’s command last year, destroyed a significant portion of its arsenal, and killed thousands of its fighters.

The overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December disrupted one of the main weapons supply routes from Iran. Sources in regional security services and Lebanese officials reported that Iran, which is itself withdrawing from the war with Israel, currently has limited capacity to assist.

According to a senior official familiar with the internal consultations, Hezbollah is holding confidential discussions about its next steps. Small committees meet either in person or remotely to discuss leadership structure, political roles, social initiatives, and armaments.

According to information from this and two other sources, Hezbollah has concluded that its accumulated arsenal, once meant to deter Israel, has become a vulnerability.

“Hezbollah had an excess of power. All that strength turned into a weak point,” said one official.

Under the leadership of Hassan Nasrallah, who died last year, Hezbollah transformed into a regional military player, with tens of thousands of fighters, rockets, and drones capable of striking Israel. It also supported allies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

Israel considered Hezbollah a serious threat. After retaliatory fire at the start of the 2023 Gaza conflict, Israel responded with airstrikes on Lebanon, which escalated into a ground operation.

No full disarmament expected

Under the terms of the ceasefire, Hezbollah has handed over some of its weapons stockpiles in southern Lebanon to the Lebanese Armed Forces. However, Israel continues to claim it carries out strikes on targets linked to the group.

Currently, Hezbollah is considering handing over part of its rockets and drones, which those considered a threat to Israel, in exchange for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon and a halt to the strikes. Full disarmament is not anticipated; sources say the group intends to retain light weapons and anti-tank systems.

The Israeli military stated that it continues operations along the northern border to eliminate threats and protect civilians, under agreements between Israel and Lebanon.

At the same time, Reuters reports that Hezbollah’s intention to retain part of its arsenal contradicts the demands of the US. Under the terms of the ceasefire brokered by the US and France, the Lebanese Armed Forces are supposed to confiscate all unregistered weapons starting from areas south of the Litani River.

The Lebanese government seeks to establish a state monopoly on arms. If Hezbollah does not comply with these demands, tensions may rise with political opponents who accuse the group of usurping power and dragging Lebanon into external conflicts.

All parties claim to abide by the ceasefire, despite mutual accusations of violations.

Part of Hezbollah’s 'DNA'

Armed capability has been an integral part of Hezbollah’s identity since its founding in 1982 by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, established to fight Israeli forces during Lebanon’s civil war.

Nicholas Blanford, an expert at the Atlantic Council and author of a history on Hezbollah, believes that to maintain its position in a hostile political environment, the group must justify the necessity of retaining arms, address issues related to information leaks, and ensure long-term financial stability.

“They have faced challenges before, but never so many at the same time,” Blanford emphasized.

According to a European official familiar with intelligence assessments, active discussions about Hezbollah’s future are ongoing, but no concrete decisions have yet been made. The official stressed that the status of an armed movement is part of the group’s DNA, making transformation into a purely political party a difficult process.

Additional threat

About ten sources familiar with the situation noted that Hezbollah is trying to retain part of its arsenal not only in case of future Israeli attacks but also due to fears of assaults by Sunni jihadists from neighboring Syria targeting eastern Lebanon.

Despite the devastating consequences of the war, with tens of thousands left homeless and large parts of southern Lebanon and the southern outskirts of Beirut destroyed, the majority of the group’s supporters maintain its military wing.

According to sources, Hezbollah’s priority is assisting affected communities. In December, Secretary-General Naim Qassem reported that over $50 million in compensation had been paid out, with another $25 million ready for distribution. Signs of financial difficulties are becoming increasingly apparent.

Sources also report reductions in free medical supplies in pharmacies controlled by Hezbollah.

Financial pressure

The group places responsibility for funding Lebanon’s reconstruction on the Lebanese government. Foreign Minister Yusuf al-Raji stated that international donor aid will not be provided until the state establishes full control over all weapons.

In May, a US State Department representative noted that support for Lebanon’s recovery is impossible without Hezbollah’s disarmament.

Israel, meanwhile, is also taking steps to restrict funding for the group. On June 25, the Israeli military announced the elimination of an Iranian official responsible for transferring hundreds of millions of dollars to armed groups in the region, as well as a figure in southern Lebanon who managed an exchange office that helped transfer these funds to Hezbollah.

Since February, Lebanon has banned commercial flights between Beirut and Tehran following Israeli claims that Hezbollah was transporting cash from Iran on civilian planes. Additionally, Lebanese authorities have tightened security at Beirut airport, limiting the group’s ability to bring in funds.

These measures have caused disappointment among Hezbollah supporters toward President Joseph Aoun’s administration and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who was elected despite the group’s opposition.

High level of support

Despite the challenges, Hezbollah, together with the Amal party, won the local elections in May, where many districts went uncontested. The group aims to maintain its influence in parliament in the upcoming elections next year.

Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of the Lebanese newspaper Annahar, described the upcoming elections as an existential battle for Hezbollah.

“It will use all the means it can, firstly to play for time so it doesn't have to disarm, and secondly to make political and popular gains,” he stated.

Israel-Hezbollah war

With the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip in late 2023, fighters from the Lebanese radical group Hezbollah began launching rockets and drones at northern Israeli territories.

Over the past year, Israeli security forces eliminated nearly all of Hezbollah’s leadership. In response to these ongoing attacks, the Israeli army launched a ground operation against militants in southern Lebanon.

In November 2024, the parties agreed to a ceasefire. Under this agreement, Israeli forces committed to withdrawing their units from southern Lebanon within 60 days. Control of the area was handed over to the regular Lebanese Armed Forces, tasked with preventing the return of militants.

However, in practice, the ceasefire is regularly violated. The Israeli military continues to carry out targeted strikes on Hezbollah’s military facilities and field commanders, whom it considers direct threats to national security.

On June 28, the IDF eliminated Hassan Mohammad Hammoudi, a key Hezbollah terrorist who commanded anti-tank missile operations.

Subsequently, Israeli forces killed another militant group, Abbas al-Hassan Wahbi.

Additionally, Israeli air forces destroyed a Hezbollah facility in southern Lebanon that militants were attempting to rebuild in violation of the ceasefire agreement.