Harris loses initiative to Trump - The Hill
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris (collage by RBC-Ukraine)
In the US, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is improving his chances of victory, while Democrat Kamala Harris is losing her lead over the opponent, reports The Hill.
The Hill notes that Harris still has a real chance of becoming the next president. However, the small advantage she had after the strong start of her campaign -highlighted by the smooth conduct of the Democratic National Convention and a powerful debate performance against Trump in September - has nearly vanished.
According to a poll commissioned by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, as of Friday, October 11, Harris is polling at 51%, compared to 56% in late September.
Additionally, Trump leads in five out of seven key swing states that are critical for victory, while Harris leads in only two. At the beginning of October, Harris held a 4-3 advantage.
However, The Hill warns that these shifts in polls do not necessarily indicate a significant decline in Harris’s chances of winning, as the gap between the candidates has been narrow from the outset.
The Hill reports that one to two percentage point changes could be statistical noise rather than evidence of real shifts. Several factors contribute to this.
First, polls may simply be inaccurate, and key issues - such as abortion for Harris and immigration for Trump - could drive higher voter turnout for either candidate than pollsters predict.
Second, minor shifts in polling averages of one or two points could be statistical noise rather than signs of real movement.
Third, polls provide only a snapshot in time, and there is still room for new events to influence the standings.
Positions of US presidential candidates on the war in Ukraine
The next presidential election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
The main candidates have yet to present clear plans for ending the war in Ukraine. However, Trump has repeatedly claimed that he could end the war within 24 hours through phone calls to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
According to a poll by The Wall Street Journal, 50% of voters in swing states believe Trump would handle Russia’s war against Ukraine more effectively. Meanwhile, only 39% of respondents expressed confidence in Harris.
Additionally, in September, Zelenskyy presented a victory plan to Biden, Harris, and Trump.
Kyiv is seeking a prompt response from the US and other partners to this initiative.
