Exacerbating birth rate crisis in Ukraine: Expert evaluation
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Ukraine faces ongoing discussions about supporting the birth rate, which has long been insufficient for stable demographic growth. In times of war, the problem is only getting worse, Oleksandr Hladun, deputy director of the Institute for Demography and Life Quality Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, told RBC-Ukraine.
The population of Ukraine has declined significantly over the past 30 years, in particular, due to natural decline and migration processes, demographers say. While at the beginning of 1993, 52.2 million people lived in Ukraine, by 2022 the number had decreased by 10 million.
In 1991, the mortality rate exceeded the birth rate, but the number was still maintained by migration when many people returned home after the collapse of the USSR. The war that began in 2014 only exacerbated the negative demographic trends, and since 2022, the situation has become much worse.
Why Ukraine has problems with the birth rate
Oleksandr Hladun notes that to keep the population at a stable level, there should be about 220 children for every hundred women. However, before the war began, this figure was only 116, and now it may be even lower.
The expert cites economic difficulties, such as low wages and lack of housing, as the main reasons for the low birth rate. Time is also an issue, as women fear that due to their active employment in the public sphere, they will not have enough time to raise their children. Social benefits are also an important factor in supporting fertility. For example, in Poland, the state provides financial support until a child reaches the age of 18.
How to solve the birth rate problem
The expert believes that if the right conditions are created for women and families, Ukraine can reach the level of 180 children per 100 women, which is a realistic goal. The set of measures includes the development of social infrastructure, the increase of kindergartens and nurseries, and flexible working hours for mothers.
The expert emphasizes that the preservation and support of the family institution should become a state priority, as the future of Ukraine and its demographic prospects depend on it.
About 25% of Ukrainian refugees abroad plan to stay there permanently, but a large number have not yet decided whether to return home. Of the more than 6.2 million Ukrainians in Europe, 40% want to return, while for those who have not yet made a decision, support and prospects in Ukraine may be decisive.
As the war continued in Ukraine, access to some demographic data was restricted, including information on the number of deaths in the war and some population figures. According to Oleksandr Hladun, demographers are currently unable to access data on the gender and age structure of the dead, the age structure of women, and birth rates, including the age of mothers at childbirth.
