European Bank for Reconstruction and Development confirms Ukraine's 2023-2024 economic forecast

"Ukraine’s economy is expected to grow only modestly, by one per cent in 2023 and three per cent in 2024, as businesses adapt to war circumstances," the report states.

The EBRD has also adjusted its forecast for the region where it operates. GDP growth is expected to slow down to 2.4% in 2023 from 3.3% in 2022. In 2024, with inflation continuing to decrease, GDP growth is expected to increase to 3.2%. These figures reflect a 0.2 percentage point upward revision to the May 2023 forecast and a 0.2 percentage point downward revision for the following year.

Beata Javorcik, the Chief Economist of the EBRD, noted that the bank sees divergent growth patterns in EBRD regions. She said that sustained growth in Central Asia and weaker economic indicators in Central Europe and the Baltic countries reflect different consequences of energy prices, inflation, and changes in trade patterns.

Ukraine's GDP

Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers predicts that the country's economic growth will accelerate to 5.0% in 2024 compared to 2.8% this year.

According to data from the State Statistics Service, Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 29.1% in 2022.

In September, the State Statistics Service released its first estimate of real GDP for the second quarter of 2023. The economy grew by 19.5% compared to the same period in 2022, with a 0.8% increase compared to the first quarter.

In the first quarter of 2023, Ukraine's economy contracted by 10.5% compared to the first quarter of the previous year.