EU leaders fell into Orbán's trap and boosted his election odds

According to the article, some European politicians and experts believe that the EU's harsh criticism may have strengthened Orbán’s position within Hungary.

It allows him to position himself as the only politician capable of "defending Hungarian interests" — a message he actively uses in his campaigns.

Criticism from the EU could work in Orbán's favor

French MEP Chloe Ridel thinks that Brussels should have avoided an open conflict with Budapest right before the elections.

She noted that Orbán is not performing strongly in polls and is trying to mobilize the electorate. Public confrontation from the EU only helps him energize supporters and convince those who are undecided.

"Orbán is not doing well in the opinion polls. And obviously he’s doing his best to fight until the end, and they should have avoided the confrontation about the Ukrainian loan, delayed the clash and not let him obtain what he clearly wanted," she said.

Orbán’s pre-election strategy

After the Brussels summit, Viktor Orbán did not appear flustered or upset. On the contrary, leaving the meeting, he showed confidence and even smiled at journalists.

Commenting on the summit results, Orbán said that EU leaders failed to make a serious impact on the situation: "make a few threats and then realize that it would not work."

He also emphasized that "there was no argument from them against which we did not have a stronger argument."

Experts believe this behavior fits perfectly into his pre-election strategy.

According to former Canadian politician Michael Ignatieff, Orbán has built campaigns for years around confrontation with Brussels.

"There’s always a risk you fall into a trap with Orbán. He's fighting for his political life," Ignatieff said.

The publication notes that Orbán's previous four election campaigns were built around the idea that Hungary faced a dark and dangerous external threat, portraying himself as a man of destiny — the only one capable of defending a country under siege, surrounded by treacherous enemies.

These enemies included faceless financial magnates, international national institutions, transnational leftist elites, and, of course, the European Union.

Opponents and a "pyrrhic victory"

Orbán’s main opponent in the elections is Peter Magyar, whom the Hungarian prime minister tries to present as a proxy of the EU and even Ukraine.

Although these claims are not true, this rhetoric can be effective, especially in regions with strong pro-government media influence.

At the same time, experts warn that even if Orbán wins, the situation for Hungary could become more complicated.

Peter Kreko, director of the Political Capital Institute, believes that such a victory could be "pyrrhic," as the EU might respond with a tougher stance toward Budapest.

What happened at the European Council meeting

Earlier, during the EU summit in Brussels on March 19, EU leaders failed to convince Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to unblock a 90-billion-euro loan for Ukraine.

According to media reports, the one-and-a-half-hour negotiations yielded no results. Orbán repeated his position: Budapest will not support any decisions in favor of Ukraine until Russian oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline are restored.

This concerns, in particular, the 90-billion-euro loan agreed upon at the EU Council meeting on February 24. Currently, Hungary is blocking the final approval of the documents required to release these funds.